Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Distribution of Saffron Cultivation for Future Years (A case study: South Khorasan Province)

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ESMAILNEJAD MORTEZA; KHASHEI SIUKI ABBAS

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Journal: JOURNAL OF SAFFRON RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:6 | Issue:1 Page(s): 75-88

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Title

Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Distribution of Saffron Cultivation for Future Years (A case study: South Khorasan Province)

Author(s)

ESMAILNEJAD MORTEZA | KHASHEI SIUKI ABBAS | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate changeQ2

Climate modelingQ1

Climate scenariosQ2

Greenhouse gasQ1

TemperatureQ1

Abstract

Climate change can have direct and indirect consequences on water resources, agriculture and environments. The effect of these changes will intensify in the coming decades. South Khorasan province is more sensitive to Climate change. South Khorasan province was affected by the consequences of Climate change and its effects in many places due to the occurrence and persistence of droughts have been observed. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sectors. Given that most rural livelihood is agriculture, including the cultivation of saffron. Knowledge of the future status of such variables influencing the Temperature is very important for future planning. This study explores the changes in Temperature until 2100 in South Khorasan Province deals. The main purpose of the identification of the main focuses of Temperature change and displacement that followed in the cultivation of saffron. The method of this study was to evaluate Temperature changes for Greenhouse gas emissions and using the hybrid model MAGICC-SENEN and general circulation models of the atmosphere HADCM3 and ECHO-G fewer than 18, including Climate change scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for the next decade to 2100. The 1961-2000 years as the previous period and the period 2016-2100 were selected as future periods. The results showed that decades to come will be an increasing trend of Temperature changes; the Temperature increase is more since 2025. In some areas of the southern and central parts, including the northern region of the Temperature rise would be higher. Saffron growing areas in the province in the coming period from spread in the city of Poets, Cain, and Asadiyeh Paradise Island deformation pattern will be more compatible with saffron and plain Nimbluk, Khezri and will in the coming periods.

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APA: Copy

ESMAILNEJAD, MORTEZA, & KHASHEI SIUKI, ABBAS. (2018). Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Distribution of Saffron Cultivation for Future Years (A case study: South Khorasan Province). JOURNAL OF SAFFRON RESEARCH, 6(1 ), 75-88. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/240440/en

Vancouver: Copy

ESMAILNEJAD MORTEZA, KHASHEI SIUKI ABBAS. Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Distribution of Saffron Cultivation for Future Years (A case study: South Khorasan Province). JOURNAL OF SAFFRON RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;6(1 ):75-88. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/240440/en

IEEE: Copy

MORTEZA ESMAILNEJAD, and ABBAS KHASHEI SIUKI, “Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Distribution of Saffron Cultivation for Future Years (A case study: South Khorasan Province),” JOURNAL OF SAFFRON RESEARCH, vol. 6, no. 1 , pp. 75–88, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/240440/en

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