Future Parameter Prediction By Scoring Rules

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HAJIZADEH SAEED; Fazli Mohammad amin; Habibi Jafar

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: THE CSI JOURNAL ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Year:2019 | Volume:16 | Issue:2 Page(s): 30-37

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Title

Future Parameter Prediction By Scoring Rules

Author(s)

HAJIZADEH SAEED | Fazli Mohammad amin | Habibi Jafar | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Scoring Rule

Decision Scoring Rule

Variable Prediction

Election Prediction

Abstract

Scoring Rules are common methods for incentivizing experts to present the opinions consistent with their beliefs. Information markets such as prediction markets and decision markets use Scoring Rules for eliciting the most accurate predictions experts can make. In these markets, experts are invited to buy and sell contracts, according to which they will be paid if their prediction about a future uncertain event is true. The final trading prices can be interpreted as an aggregation of their prediction for an uncertain future event. In this paper, we propose new mechanisms (prediction oriented and decision oriented) for predicting the value of uncertain continuous variables in the future. These mechanisms in their basic form, are Scoring Rules with a new paradigm. This paper also includes the results of performing a case study (a prediction oriented mechanism) for predicting the outcome of the 11th presidential election of Iran in 2013 to analyze the performance of our model. Besides the fact that the mechanism's average absolute error in predicting nominees' percentages was low, about 6. 53%, it also predicted the final outcome order of all nominees correctly.

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APA: Copy

HAJIZADEH, SAEED, Fazli, Mohammad amin, & Habibi, Jafar. (2019). Future Parameter Prediction By Scoring Rules. THE CSI JOURNAL ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 16(2), 30-37. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/784193/en

Vancouver: Copy

HAJIZADEH SAEED, Fazli Mohammad amin, Habibi Jafar. Future Parameter Prediction By Scoring Rules. THE CSI JOURNAL ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2019;16(2):30-37. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/784193/en

IEEE: Copy

SAEED HAJIZADEH, Mohammad amin Fazli, and Jafar Habibi, “Future Parameter Prediction By Scoring Rules,” THE CSI JOURNAL ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 30–37, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/784193/en

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