TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS IN FUTURES STUDIES

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Abbasi ali asghar; Saken hesam; BAHRAMI MOHSEN

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Seminar Paper

Paper Information

Seminar: NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURES STUDIES
Year:2015 | Issue:3

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Title

TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS IN FUTURES STUDIES

Author(s)

Abbasi ali asghar | Saken hesam | BAHRAMI MOHSEN

Keywords

TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS (TIA)

FORECASTING

SCENARIO WRITING

FUTURES STUDIES

Abstract

TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS (TIA) METHOD, WAS FIRST INTRODUCED BY THEODORE J. GORDON IN EARLY 1970S, AT THAT TIME FORECASTING WAS MOSTLY DONE BY QUANTITATIVE METHODS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA AND VIA TREND EXTRAPOLATION, THESE TYPES OF METHODS, HOWEVER, IGNORED THE IMPACTS OF UNEXPECTED EVENTS IN THE FUTURE. THIS PROBLEM IS APPLICABLE TO ALL QUANTITATIVE METHODS THAT ARE DEPENDENT SOLELY ON HISTORICAL DATA (FROM TIME-SERIES TO OTHER COMMON METHODS). TIA METHOD, BASES ITS FORECAST ON THE QUANTITATIVE METHODS BUT TRIES TO IMPROVE THE BASIC FORECAST BY USING EXPERTS OPINION (DELPHI METHOD IS MOSTLY USED) ABOUT PROBABLE EVENTS IN THE FUTURE. TIA IS ONE OF THE MOST WIDELY USED METHODS IN FUTURES STUDIES, WE CAN USE THIS TECHNIC FOR FORECASTING, CONTINGENCY PLANNING, POLITICAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS, STRATEGIC PLANNING AND SCENARIO WRITING.

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APA: Copy

Abbasi, ali asghar, Saken, hesam, & BAHRAMI, MOHSEN. (2015). TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS IN FUTURES STUDIES. NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURES STUDIES. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/907582/en

Vancouver: Copy

Abbasi ali asghar, Saken hesam, BAHRAMI MOHSEN. TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS IN FUTURES STUDIES. 2015. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/907582/en

IEEE: Copy

ali asghar Abbasi, hesam Saken, and MOHSEN BAHRAMI, “TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS IN FUTURES STUDIES,” presented at the NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURES STUDIES. 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/907582/en

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