Rainfall is the most variable climatic element. Spatial and temporal distribution because of its widespread use in agriculture, water resources, industry, the operation of dams and irrigation is important. According to the study of rainfall behavior in the Ahar area that is one of the important agriculture regions on North West of Iran; monthly rainfalls data of this station during statistical period (1965-2005) have been obtained from meteorological organization. To achieve research objectives, the methods of moving average, SPI index and graphical Mann-Kendal tests were used. Applications of the moving average annual rainfall data indicate an increase in rainfall phases (second half 1970) and lower (second half 1990), respectively. Mann–Kendal test although volatility and the significant reduction trend in the amount of winter precipitation approved, but showed no significant trend in total precipitation for the period of most months, other seasons and a total annual precipitation. Also SPI method confirmed the tendency of regional climate trends toward shorter drought periods. Results of this research can support the programmers in confrontation with negative precipitation variations and also using of the climatic potentials of the region.

This article aims to evaluate sensitivity of Goijabel basin lands in landsliding based on GIS and AHP. The main reason for selection of this basin for research is to observe the current landsliding in the region by the author and environmental preservation attitude of the authors. This basin is one of the sub-basins of Aharchi in area of 7406 Hectares with geographical statues of 46, 47, 21.26 to 46, 56, 53.64 east longitude and 38, 21, 42.13 to 38, 27, 39.04 north latitude. The criteria selected for analysis of landsliding sensitivity in the study basin involve nine parameters (slope, aspect, height, lithology, fault, road, landuse, precipitation and main water ways) extracted from basic maps, field studies and spot satellite images and their primary valuation was conducted by using GIS techniques in five layers relative to the effect of each measure on incidence of landsliding. Then pair comparison of the layers was carried out by using Mariyoni attached program (AHP extension) and final map of the land sensitivity in landsliding was extracted. The results of landsliding sensitivity analysis in Goijabel basin showed that the most effective factor in land sliding is lithology with weight of 0.3113 according to the highest weight and then the height with minimum weight of 0.0178 is the criterion with lowest effect in landsliding. Also the analysis of landsliding danger in the study basin shows that endangered lands with high sliding capability involve 1222 ha which cover %16.5 of the total regions.

Along with the fast growth of cities and complication of inner-city processes, the number of crisis and urban complication increases and as a consequence vulnerability increases as well. Considering that the man is in the center of the vulnerability and encounters with crisis, and also urban spaces contain most of the population, noticing these spaces is of urgent importance. In this respect, making policies to reduce vulnerability of urban spaces against natural disasters, considering their accidental nature and the necessity of making right decisions and development of human knowledge and technology, the analysis of vulnerable areas in cities are essential to present a vivid picture of consequences of disasters. The analysis and planning is the most effective and perhaps the best choice of management and urban planners to counter natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Thus, considering vulnerability of Ahar city because of its geographical position, the aim of the present study is to investigate and evaluate vulnerability of Ahar urban spaces in facing earthquake crisis. The study is applied and descriptive-analytic method was used. To measure the vulnerability of urban spaces against earthquake, 15 scales were used in three constructive, planning, and natural types. Having measured scale’s weight using multivariate analysis, the study tried to use AHP model. The results of the study showed that 30% of urban spaces made in Ahar city to counter earthquake, are increasingly vulnerable to it and they lack structural framework to manage earthquake crisis.

114 three-component strong motion records from 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan double earthquakes (Mw=6.5, 6.3) are used to study the apparent source spectra of these two events. For this purpose, all the known effects of local site and travel path were deconvolved from the observed spectra. As of path effects (attenuation model), two models are considered: 1) a model developed by the authors in an earlier study with the geometrical spreading form of R-0.9 at close distances, 2) a model developed in this study in which the geometrical spreading has the more conventional form of R-1 at close distances. These two models have very similar associated Q factors, as the Q factor is more affected by the rate of geometrical spreading at longer distances. It is observed that the inferred source spectrum (particularly Brune stress drop) depends strongly on the considered attenuation model. For the studied events, the apparent observed source spectra for vertical and horizontal components show overall similarity, with horizontal component having bigger scatter and higher fluctuations. The apparent source spectrum of the first event almost perfectly matches the well-known Brune model; whereas the second event is a fair match to the Brune model and is better represented by a double corner frequency model. Out of four double-corner frequency models of source spectra where evaluated here, only the recently developed generalized double-corner-frequency model can successfully reproduce the observed ground motions; the other three lack flexibility in matching the high-frequency spectral level.

Rural cultural heritage represents the historical background. Rural culture that shapes each country in many years has been realized.Rural cultural heritage, including features such as rural communities, local habits, and customs related to food and clothing, architecture, monuments and buildings are historic, music, art, local languages and spiritual and moral values. Each country should specify social phenomena in rural areas where its past traditions remain, should be maintained. Unfortunately, rural and cultural heritage in our country with low interest aside is declining. Although in recent years, efforts by some government agencies and NGOs interested in conservation of cultural heritage made culture and traditions of society be better identified and the resultant revival sought, but no information regarding the current generation of value and importance of cultural heritage has been recognized. In order to achieve the goals of sustainable rural development causes of these effects, material and spiritual values at risk are located and destroyed. This applied research is a way to cross-sectional article. Techniques used for data collection are document type field work. The results of field studies by the authors identified and ranked 10 villages with cultural heritage in the city of Lamerd and explained the quality of life indicators at the level of households living in 160 villages. The study shows that cultural heritage has no effects on the quality index of residents living in rural central city. For this reason the most effective indicator of the quality of rural housing and rural education has been cultural heritage.

Watershed residents' benefit increasing and soil erosion controlling are the main goals of agricultural sustainable development. Landuse optimization operation is an effective solution in order to maximizing the benefits, as well as minimizing soil erosion damages. Current research was executed in southern parts of Ahar Chaey Watershed in East Azerbijan Province. In this research, Multi-Objective linear programing based on Simplex method applied for optimizing landuse in form of three different scenarios: current landuses, implementation of management into current landuses and performance of the standard landuses by WinQSB software. Results showed that due to landuse optimization, irrigated orchards could be increased from 1. 736 to 6. 629 km2. In addition, based on suitable soils and adequate rainfalls, it is expected to expand the rainfed orchards up to 9. 72 km2. Also, the weighted average of soil erosion reduces from 16. 3 to 14. 8 and from 10. 11 to 9. 5 tha-1year-1 within the first and second scenarios, respectively. This rate will reduce up to 6. 8 tha-1year-1 in the standard landuse situation. On the other hand, maximizing results showed that the annual net benefits increases from 6. 6 to 12. 9 and 8. 46 to 14 million Rails per unit area in the first and second scenarios, respectively. This rate increases up to 15. 67 million Rails per unit area for standard landuse situation. Sensitivity analysis results showed that irrigated and rainfed orchards are of high sensitivity in maximizing profit functions due to high profitability of these landuse in unit area. In contrast, the rangelands, forests and drylands are of high sensitivity in soil erosion minimization, so that with increasing their area, soil erosion will increase significantly in the region.

Social services and facilities status in Ahar county rural settlements represent imbalance and disparity among them and it has lasted for years. This article attempts to measure relative level of development and to identify gap among rural settlements. Target population is situated in north-east of Eastern Azerbaijan Province and include 58622 people, 341 villages and 9 sub districts (which is called Dehestan in Iran).The study applied numerical taxonomy method and 53 variables were selected then were divided into 4 major sectors: Infrastructure, economic, hygienic and social indexes for the year 1385. The results indicated significant differences and heterogeneity in infrastructure, economic and hygienic indexes among sub-districts and there was no any relationship between research variables.

Seismic values are the main parameters in evaluating the neotectonic activity of a region. In August 11, 2011, two Mb=6.4 and Mb=6.3 earthquakes occurred in Ahar-Varzaghan region within 11 minutes. Seismotectonic investigations imply that the faults generating the events are the young faults of the regions. Also, distribution of the epicenters represent a pattern consistent with the fault trends in the area. Temporal and spatial distribution of the earthquakes (fractal analysis) as earthquake pre-indicators together with a-b values were used to assess the neotectonic activity and explore the seismic model of the Ahar area. Results show a sharp decrease in b-value, indicating that the main shock was associated with a zone of high strain rate. The seismic model presented for the Ahar area illustrates three periods after the main shock including: 1) an early quiescence Q1, 2) an aftershock period B, and 3) a late quiescence Q2. The rather increase in b-value during the Q2 period is interpreted to indicate stress decrease in the region.

Ahar is located in the northwest of Iran and due to its diversities and special potentials, the city can be regarded as one of the best tourist destinations especially in a new form of tourism through skillful planning. Since achieving this goal leads to extensive economical and social development, in this article tourism structure of Ahar was investigated through evaluation of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats using SWOT model. The SWOT analysis results which were obtained based on the views of three experimental groups showed that the factors of strengths, opportunities, weaknesses and threats were 2.6422, 2.5645, 2.6957, and 2.8807 respectively. Based on the final chart ST, WT, SO and WO strategies had the largest area respectively. This shows that the final strategic state of the region tends towards the diversified strategies, means utilization of the high potentials of the region in order to overcome the threats. Thus planning should be more focused on this sector. Also the results of prioritizing series of existing strategies by the QSPM matrix showed that ST4 in ST strategies, WT4 in WT strategies, SO7 in SO strategies, and WO2 in WO strategies are high priority strategies with final attractiveness score equal to 12.74, 12.59, 13.03 and 12.64.