In shallow river, regardless of the vertical acceleration against gravity acceleration, great simplifying will be created in equations that the result of them are shallow water equations. In this study shallow water equation has been used to simulate transport of pollution in 2D limited volumes method. In this method it is possible to turn differential equations ruling fluid to be solved in numerical form. To achieve better results in estimating pollution concentration in the river and Reliable range, the pollution Transformation Model uncertainty analysisprepared were examined. To uncertainty assessment in this study 5000 times repetition of uncertainty 3 calibration parameter of pollution transferring model by the use of uncertainty algorithm GLUE had happened in river. For this matter of pollution Transformation Problem breaking a dam was used. By applying acceptability threshold indicator of total average cubes (SSE) on all the obtained simulations, 1000 top simulations were known as efficient simulations. Considering about 95 percent confidence as high and low bound of uncertainty, and by applying used d-factor and p-factor indicators, 68 and 75 respectively were obtained Which reflects the high level of concentration was observed in 95 percent confidence. Results had showed using GLUE method caused reduction of uncertainty pollution transferring model parameters. Extraction probabilistical charts last corresponding parameter distributed with efficient simulation, parameter (n) as a sensitive and effective parameter on simulation models. And the optimal value obtained for this parameter 0.2477.

Background and Objectives: The calibration of hydrologic models is a worldwide challenge due to the uncertainty involved in the large number of parameters and the inability to reliably measure the distributed physical characteristics of a catchment results in significant uncertainty in the parameterization of physically based, semi-distributed models. Therefore, a successful application of a hydrologic model in applied water research strongly depends on calibration and uncertainty analysis of model output. Different studies indicated that in parameter uncertainty of the stream flow and sediment modeling only a few parameters affected the final simulation output significantly. In this paper, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was combined with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantify the monthly stream flow in the eastern Gorganrood river basin.Materials and Methods: The Golestan Regional Water Company (GRWC) monitoring site at Gazaghly was chosen as the outlet for the entire watershed since it is the lowest monitoring station on the river not subject to dam influence. Annual precipitation decreases in the west to east direction, low (200 mm) to high (880 mm) and from south to north direction. Model has been calibrated and validated using monthly runoff flow data of ten years 1984 and 1993. Data pertaining to year 1984-1990 has been used for calibration and 1991-1993 for validation.Results: In semi-distributed models such as SWAT, it is necessary to identify the most sensitive parameters to obtain a better understanding of the overall hydrologic processes before calibration. Based on this study, only a few parameters affected the final simulation output significantly. The parameters such as CN2 (curve number), GWQMN (threshold in the shallow aquifer), RCHRG_DP (deep aquifer percolation fraction), ALPHA_BNK (base flow alpha factor for bank storage), ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor) and SOL_K were found to be the most sensitive parameters. According to results, the parameter CN2, was the most effective parameter on the output discharge of the studied area and CN2, was identified as a main source of uncertainty in results. Statistical model performance measures, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.80, the Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency (ENS) of 0.72, for calibration and 0.83 and 0.80, respectively for validation, indicated good performance for runoff estimating on monthly time step in the outlets of the Gazaghly gauging station.69-74% of the observed runoff data fall inside the 95% simulation confidence intervals in the calibration and validation periods. The evaluation statistics for the daily runoff simulation showed that the model results were acceptable, but the model underestimated the runoff for high-flow events.Conclusion: SWAT was applied to simulate monthly runoff in part of the Gorganrood river basin. Results of uncertainty analysis indicated that SWAT model had large uncertainties for calibration period, although the simulation of monthly runoff for the Gazaghly station was satisfactory during the calibration period and in the model calibration stage 69 of runoff observations were within the corresponding 95% confidence interval. This study would provide useful information for hydrology modeling related to policy development in the Gorganrood river basin and other similar areas.

Introduction: One of the most common complications following total laryngectomy is pharyngocutaneous fistula (PCF). Various methods have been proposed to treat this disorder in recent studies, including a range of simple and conservative treatments to more aggressive therapies, such as various surgical procedures. One of the most innovative and least developed methods is the use of plasma-rich compounds, such as fibrin glue. Case Report: The patient was a 55-year-old woman with a transglottic squamous cell carcinoma of the T3N0M0 stage and PCF development following total laryngectomy surgery with total thyroidectomy and bilateral elective cervical lymph node dissection level I-IV. In spite of conservative treatment, the fistula was not recovered after 3 weeks. It was decided to perform fibrin glue injection into the fistula tract via the endoscopic approach. One month after the fibrin glue injection, no evidence of contrast extravasation was observed on barium swallow test, and the fistula was completely closed. Conclusion: No PCF has been treated with fibrin glue using only the endoscopic technique. The present study showed that fibrin glue can be used as an effective way to treat chronic fistulas in head and neck surgeries.

Methods: A case series study was performed on corneal perforations up to 3 mm who were admitted at Farabi Hospital- Tehran. Age, visual acuity, presence and size of corneal thinning, corneal epithelial defect, size and depth of corneal infiltration, site and size of corneal perforation, corneal vascularization, anterior chamber depth and reaction and the etiology of corneal perforation were recorded. Then corneal perforation was sealed by using of fibrin glue and soft contact lens and the patients were followed for at least 3 months.Results: Of 18 patients, 8 patients were female and 10 patients were male. Mean age was 52±25.7 years. Size of corneal perforations were 0.6 to 3 mm (mean=1.88 mm). The etiologies of corneal perforation were postinfectious in 11 and noninfectious in 7 cases. Fifteen eyes (83.3%) had successful healing of corneal perforation after 3 months. All the cases who failed had corneal perforation greater than 2 mm in diameter. Success rate was significantly lower in corneal perforation > 2 mm in diameter. No case developed giant papillary conjunctivitis or secondary glaucoma. Only one (5.6%) eye showed a significant increase in deep corneal vascularization.Conclusion: Fibrin glue is effective in the closure of corneal perforations up to 2 mm in diameter. Corneal perforation > 2 mm in diameter may not respond well. It provides fast healing with low rate of corneal vascularization.

In recent years, the determination of the uncertainty of hydrological models in the hydrological research has been very much taken into consideration. Although the parameters of the hydrological model are usually determined by calibration, but there is considerable uncertainty in the model parameters. In this study, with the aim of calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled model ALSIS-HBV, GLUE method has been used in the Karkheh basin. Determining the main source of uncertainty and identification of parameters, as well as estimating uncertainty in the results of river flow simulation are other goals of this research. The statistics used to evaluate the performance of the coupled model including coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), BIAS and root mean square error ratio to standard deviation of data (RSR). The findings show that soil and response routine parameters including maximum soil moisture storage (Fcap), limiting soil moisture at which PET takes place (lp), distribution of soil stores (B), and withdrawal rate from deep layer (K2) are main sources of river flow uncertainty and the most identifiable parameters. The evaluation of the results of the uncertainty by P-factor and R-factor shows that in the calibration period, the width of the R-factor range in the Seymare sub-basin is greater than other sub-basins and the highest percentage of river flow data (P-factor) in this range. During the verification period, the breadth of the uncertainty range in the Karkheh basin is greater than all sub-basins and covers 76 percent of observation data. In general, the model's performance evaluation for river flow simulationin karkheh basin, especially in calibration period is good and acceptable, and most river flow observations are in 95% confidence intervals, Therefore, the probability distribution calculated from the river flow can be used to predict the flow of the river.

Background and Objectives: Groundwater modeling often is associated with uncertainty caused by incomplete knowledge of the underlying system or uncertainty due to natural variability in system processes and field conditions. Uncertainty in groundwater modeling has been evaluated in three main sources as parameter uncertainty, conceptual uncertainty and input uncertainty. So far, there are few studies for assessing groundwater uncertainty in the country and quantifying uncertainty has been limited to statistical methods. Due to the importance of the water resources in the country and the necessity of estimating the uncertainty in order to achieve reliable results, in this study, parameter uncertainty of an arid region’s groundwater flow model was assessed by using a Monte Carlo-based simulation technique.Materials and Methods: First, conceptual groundwater model of Birjand plain, located in the southern province, was developed based on collecting all available data, including topography, observed and withdrawal wells information, recharge information, hydrodynamic properties, surface elevation data. Then, the MATLAB -based MODFLOW model was used to simulate the groundwater flow. After initial calibration in steady state, for assessing parameter uncertainty in transient mode two scenarios were defined. Uncertainty analysis in the first scenario was performed by assuming the hydraulic conductivity as one of the major contributors to the model uncertainty. So the aquifer was divided into 17 homogenized zones according to initial calibration results and the parameter uncertainty was assessed using GLUE. In the second scenario, nine recharge zones were additionally considered as second parameters and their influence on hydraulic conductivity and total uncertainty were estimated by GLUE.Results: Posterior parameter plots of hydraulic conductivity in 17 homogeneous regions and recharge in nine inflow pathways and also, 95% confidence intervals for the simulated water table depth, were obtained as main results. The indices, as criteria for the comparison, were used to quantify the goodness of uncertainty performance and the sensitive regions were specified by implementing global sensitivity analysis of the model.Conclusion: Results indicate up to 86% of observed data bounded in the 95% confidence intervals that is emphatic the performance of the GLUE and the likelihood function in the assessment of parameter uncertainty in groundwater simulation model.