NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON QUANTITATIVE MODELS TECHNIQUES IN MANAGEMENT‏ | Year:2016 | دوره:1 |Papers Count:6

THIS PAPER DEVELOPS A MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR A MULTI-PERIOD AND MULTI-PRODUCT FORWARD-REVERSE SUPPLY CHAIN UNDER DYNAMIC CONDITION TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMAL VALUES OF TACTICAL LEVEL DECISIONS. THE TACTICAL LEVEL DECISIONS INCLUDE DECISIONS RELATED TO PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION PLANNING, INVENTORY AMOUNT, TRANSPORTATION MODE, QUANTITY OF COLLECTED AND RECOVERED PRODUCTS IN THE FORWARD AND REVERSE SIDES OF THE CONSIDERED SUPPLY CHAIN. THE ACQUIRED RESULTS JUSTIFY THE CAPABILITY OF THE PROPOSED MODEL IN DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL VALUES OF TACTICAL LEVEL DECISIONS IN DIFFERENT ECHELONS OF A FORWARD-REVERSE SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORK.

SUSTAINABILITY COMPONENTS HAVE RECEIVED INCREASING ATTENTION AT PASSENGER AIRPORTS TO IMPROVE SERVICE QUALITY AND PRESERVE THE ENVIRONMENT WHILE REDUCING COSTS. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINABILITY COMPONENTS CAN BRING A LOT OF ADVANTAGES, THEY ARE NOT FAMILIAR FOR MANY AIRPORTS’ MANAGERS ESPECIALLY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LIKE IRAN. THAT IS WHY AFTER PERFORMING INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY DELPHI TECHNIQUE; MUTUAL RELATIONSHIPS OF THE COMPONENTS ARE INVESTIGATED BY APPLICATION OF INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY DEMATEL TECHNIQUE. IT IS REMARKABLE THAT SUCH AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TOWARD DETERMINING COMPONENTS HAS LED TO A SET OF COMPONENTS THAT ARE CONCISE AND ALSO SUFFICIENTLY COMPREHENSIVE. MEANWHILE, INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY DEMATEL TECHNIQUE IS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING WHICH COMPONENTS HAVE AFFECTIONS ON OTHERS. SUCH KNOWLEDGE ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS AMONG COMPONENTS MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO LEAD THEM IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION BY DIRECTING INFLUENCING COMPONENTS PROPERLY. FINALLY, THE WEIGHTS OF THE COMPONENTS ARE DETERMINED BY INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY EXTENSION OF DANP TECHNIQUE IN ORDER TO SPECIFY WHICH COMPONENT HAS THE GREATEST PRIORITY IN MAKING PASSENGER AIRPORTS MORE SUSTAINABLE. THIS EXTENDED TECHNIQUE CONSIDERS THE MUTUAL RELATIONSHIPS OF COMPONENTS AND CAN KEEP UNCERTAINTY THOUGH THE WHOLE STEPS OF DETERMINING THEIR WEIGHTS. RESULTS SHOW THAT POLICY MAKING (C1) AND SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY (C10) HAVE THE HIGHEST WEIGHTS AND THE GREATEST EFFECTS ON OTHER COMPONENTS OF THE SYSTEM. SO, AIRPORT MANAGERS SHOULD CONSIDER SUITABLE VISIONS, STRATEGIES AND DEFINED MILESTONES FOR EVERY ASPECT OF SUSTAINABILITY WHILE POLICY MAKING AND PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE AIRPORT SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY THROUGH THIS WAY.

IN THIS PAPER A MODIFIED FUZZY C-MEANS CLUSTERING METHOD IS PRESENTED WHICH IS APPLICABLE FOR INTERVAL TYPE- 2 FUZZY DATA SETS. A QUANTIFYING SIMILARITY MEASURE BASED ON EUCLIDEAN DISTANCES FUNCTION WHICH MEASURED THE SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EACH INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY DATA POINT IS IMPLEMENTED FOR DATA CLUSTERING. MOREOVER, A MODIFIED XIE-BENI INDEX IS PRESENTED WHICH IS USED FOR INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY SETS. SOME NUMERICAL EXAMPLES USED TO SHOW THE USEFULNESS OF IT2 FUZZY C-MEAN CLUSTERING METHOD. THE RESULTS SHOW IT2FCM IS THE SUPERIOR AND EFFICIENT METHOD FOR INTERVAL TYPE-2 FUZZY SETS CLUSTERING.

IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OF ADVANCED INDUSTRIES, THE SUPPLY OUTSOURCING HAS PROVIDED A PART OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF RESEARCH AND MANUFACTURE, LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN WITH HIGH SENSITIVITY AND COMPLEXITY. IN THESE INDUSTRIES, THE LOGISTICS IN A BROADER SENSE INCLUDES THE ROLE OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN TO PREPARE AND MANUFACTURE A PRODUCT FROM THE PHASE OF THE RAW MATERIALS SUPPLY TO THE DISTRIBUTION AND DELIVERY OF THE FINAL PRODUCT TO THE CUSTOMERS AND ITS SUPPORT. THERE ARE MANY FACTORS, E.G.POLITICAL CONCERNS, TECHNOLOGICAL ALTERATIONS, REGIONAL THREATS, CUSTOMERS’ DEMANDS, STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES, FINANCIAL INSTABILITY AND NATURAL DISASTERS, WHICH HAVE INCREASED THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE LOGISTICS RISKS. THE MANAGEMENT OF SUCH RISKS IS ESSENTIAL TO REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY OF THE LOGISTICS MEMBERS. THEREBY, THE LOGISTICS RISKS SHOULD BE IDENTIFIED, EVALUATED AND RANKED. THE PRESENT STUDY APPLIES A COMPREHENSIVE MULTIATTRIBUTE DECISION-MAKING MODEL CALLED THE TAXONOMIC ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY AND ASSESS THE SUPPLY AND PRODUCT RISKS IN THE LOGISTICS, THEREFORE ONE OF THE MANUFACTURE INDUSTRIES OF THE ADVANCED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN STUDIED. IN THIS RESPECT, THE LOGISTICS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THIS INDUSTRY AND THE LITERATURE IS REVIEWED AND THE EXPERTS’ NOTION ON 44 RISKS OF THE SUPPLY AND PRODUCT, AND 16 ASSESSMENT ATTRIBUTE HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED AND THEN A STATISTICS POPULATION OF 30 EXPERTS IN THE RELEVANT SECTIONS, AS THEIR ANSWERS WERE OBTAINED VIA THE QUESTIONNAIRE. THE IDENTIFIED RISKS ARE ASSESSED AND RANKED BY TAXONOMIC METHOD. THE RESULTS SHOWED THAT THE RISK OF “MONETARY POLICY OF UPSTREAM ENTITIES” AS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR AND THEN THE “ENVIRONMENTAL RISK (RULES, GOVERNMENTAL POLICIES, TAXATION, AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS) ” AND “POOR QUALITY OF RAW MATERIALS USED BY CONTRACTOR” HAVE HIGHEST WEIGHT AND SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS MODEL.

PETROLEUM-BASED RESOURCES PROVIDE DIFFERENT PRODUCTS INCLUDING TRANSPORTATION FUELS, FUEL OILS FOR HEATING AND ELECTRICITY GENERATION, ASPHALT AND ROAD OIL, AND THE FEEDSTOCKS USED TO MAKE CHEMICALS, PLASTICS, AND SYNTHETIC MATERIALS FOUND IN NEARLY EVERYTHING WE USE TODAY. OPTIMAL PREDICTION AND FORECASTING OF PETROLEUM-BASED RESOURCE CONSUMPTION WOULD HELP ENERGY POLICY MAKERS AND PRACTITIONERS TO TAKE APPROPRIATE STRATEGIC DECISIONS IN THIS SECTOR. IN THIS PAPER, AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) APPROACH IS PROPOSED TO OPTIMUM FORECASTING OF PETROLEUM-BASED ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN IRAN. OIL AND NATURAL GAS TOGETHER MAKE PETROLEUM. THE MOST IMPORTANT AND EFFECTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS IN PETROLEUM RESOURCE CONSUMPTION ARE CONSIDERED IN THE APPLIED ANN. THE ANN TRAINS AND TESTS DATA WITH MULTI-LAYER PERCEPTRON (MLP) APPROACH WHICH HAS THE LOWEST MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR (MAPE). THE OBTAINED RESULTS JUSTIFY THE EFFICIENCY OF THE PROPOSED APPROACH IN PREDICTION OF PETROLEUM-BASED ENERGY CONSUMPTION.

PROJECT AS A TEMPORARY EFFORT IS A FUNCTION OF TIME, RESOURCES AND COSTS AND TWO ESSENTIAL FACTORS OF LEAD TIME AND PROFITABILITY ARE THE FINAL DETERMINANTS OF SUCCESS OF FAILURE OF IT. BUT OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS QUALITY AND CUSTOMER SATISFACTION ARE ALSO INFLUENTIAL IN ASSESSING THE PROJECT.THE COMMON METHOD OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERS IN PLANNING AND INVESTIGATION OF PROJECTS IS OPERATIONAL PLANNING. IN THIS METHOD OF PLANNING, THE ACTIVITIES OR WORK PACKAGES ARE THE MAIN CORE AND PROJECT CONSTRAINTS (RESOURCES, COST, SCOPE AND RISK) ARE DEFINED FOR EACH PROJECT. FROM THIS VIEWPOINT THERE ARE TWO ESSENTIAL CHALLENGES. FIRST THAT THE RESOURCES SHALL BE DIVIDED AMONG THE ACTIVITIES BY A METHOD AND SECOND THAT IF THE CHANGE IS INTENDED, IT SHALL BE CONSIDERED FOR ALL ACTIVITIES. THIS DIFFICULTY CAUSES SPECIALLY IN MEGA-PROJECTS WHICH ARE CONSISTED OF THOUSANDS OF ACTIVITIES OR WORK PACKAGES, ASSIGNING THE PROJECT CONSTRAINTS TO THE ACTIVITIES DO NOT HAPPEN OR IT IS CONDUCTED MERELY WITHOUT ANALYSIS.FROM ONE HAND THE LARGE INDUSTRIAL PROJECT WHICH ARE KNOWN AS MEGA-PROJECTS TO HAVE UNIQUE BEHAVIORS THAT DIFFERENTIATE THEM FROM THE PROJECTS SUCH AS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE BEHAVIORS LIKE PRODUCTION PROJECTS. THIS FEATURE ENABLES US TO SIMULATE THESE PROJECTS IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR AND PERFORMANCE.WITH REGARDS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED POINTS, IN THIS PAPER THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE PROJECT MODELING IN VIEWPOINT OF STRATEGIC RESOURCES INFLUENTIAL IN PROJECT ARE INVESTIGATED.