IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
Year:2017 | Volume:13 | Issue:2 |Papers Count:22

Mashhad Plain have faced sever qualitative and quantitative depletion in groundwater resources due to over exploitations in recent years. The plausible solutions to this crisis would be either to transfer water from other basins or to obtain appropriate managerial measures to decrease water demands. The first option definitely need considerable investments in the origin and destination basins and face uncertainties and challenges over time. Accordingly, researchers suggest the management of water demands through the optimal use of available water resources, instead of external water supply projects. Demand management strategies could however and on the other hand affect the interests of costumers and create conflicts among stakeholders. In this paper, the possible reduction of demands through reducing the conflicts among actors of water resources in Mashhad Plain (i.e. managers and costumers) were studied. In this regard, the actors of water resources in Mashhad Plain were firstly identified and then, through brainstorming sessions devised the road map and/or conceptual model for managing water resources. In the next step, the actors’ cognitive maps about water resources were studied and the conflicting elements were identified. Finally, the cause-effect relationships were analyzed. The results showed that actors had serious conflicts over 6 items. There were small conflicts over 30 percent of the elements and compromises could readily be achieved over the rest. The results also showed that some actors might have more significant roles in conflict resolution.

To assess the uncertainty of contaminant transport models in column experiments it is essential to select reliable models for simulating column experiments and estimation of reliable parameters in order to identify the processes governing contaminant transport. So the overall goal of this study is to specify the uncertainty associated with the model development by defining several conceptual models and selecting the most probable model and the best estimate of contaminant transport model parameters and model prediction. For exploring uncertainty in column experiment we considered four models from the literature including the equilibrium and non-equilibrium convection dispersion models i.e. CDE1 and CDE2 convection-dispersion models and MIM1 and MIM2 mobile-immobile models. The model selection criteria were used to evaluate the probabilities of the four models. Using the full covariance matrix that considers residual correlation has caused definitive recommendations on the basis of AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC statistics and the model probability. The result showed that for the slow flow case due to the satisfaction of the equilibrium assumption the CDE2 and for the high flow case MIM1 were receiving the highest model probability and the least uncertainty. Finally it is concludes that the reliability of the model’s data interpretation can be improved by considering alternative transport processes and quantifying uncertainty in the experiment.

With no doubt, conservation of groundwater resources is a contested process which demands for getting involved with social and political dimensions, rather than a single technical action. Thus, desirable state of the water governance can facilitate implementation of the groundwater conservation process, because governance system implies for a regulating structure of management processes such as water resource conservation. Presenting a framework for the assessment of the governance process based on the Contextual Interaction Theory, this paper aims to analyze and discuss the structural causes of failure in the groundwater conservation policies in Iran. In the framework, we assessed five elements of a governance system from the perspective of two general criteria of extent and coherence. These five elements are scales and levels, actors and networks, problem perspectives and goal ambitions, strategies and instruments, and finally the resources (financial, human, …). Different sources of data are used in this research, including national documents, interviews and questionnaire. Semi-structured interviews are done with elites in Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Jahad-Agriculture, Department of Environment, and Management and Planning Organization. To gather the Parliament Members’ opinions, a semi-structured questionnaire is used. The assessment results showed that not only the governance system suffers from the lack of comprehensiveness and development (extent) in all of the five governance elements, but also the relatedness and coordination (coherence) of the elements are in poor conditions for all five. This situation indicated that the current system of water governance has a poor capacity to support implementation of the conservation policies and therefore the main target for enhancing sustainability in the groundwater resources should shift towards amendment and improvement of the water governance structure.

Univariate indices can be useful for certain purposes but are unable to comprehensively monitor drought characteristics as a complex climate phenomenon. In this study, to monitor agricultural drought conditions in Golestan province, the multivariate index ADI has been developed based on Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique using the results of drought indices as inputs. For this purpose the daily metrological variables from 10 synoptic and evaporative stations were obtained for 33 hydrological years to compute the values of 5 drought indices i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Evapotranspiration–Precipitation Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Z-Index, and Soil Moisture Index (SMI) in monthly timescale. Then by applying PCA technique and considering all established components, the ADI drought index was developed based on linear combinations of derivation components for each of the studied stations. Finally the ADI results were compared to common indices such as SPEI and SPI. The results showed a strong correlation coefficient between ADI and SPEI indices in wet regions and months of November to March based on Kendal –Tau (greater than 0.8). The degree of correlation were reduced during warm months of April to June. Comparative study on the results of ADI and SPEI showed that the ADI index as a multivariate index could reflect the effects of input drought indices such as SMI and Z-Index and present a more comprehensive drought monitoring.

In an economy based on agriculture, which has expanded in many developing and developing countries, the need for comprehensive planning and planning for the use of agricultural inputs is essential in order to maximize economic profit. The demand for agricultural water in Iran is increasing day by day and its supply is limited due to the presence of Iran in the dry and semi-arid belt of the world. For this reason, this vital ingredient in Iran is one of the most important pillars of development, and the development of other sectors depends on sustainable exploitation. The purpose of this research is to determine the optimal allocation of water resources using the fuzzy planning approach and explain the planning axis on the water and land resource decision variable in the city of Some Sara, Gilan province. For this purpose, with the aim of maximizing gross margin and due to system limitations and goals in different scenarios and different values of l, The results showed that the cropping pattern in the studied area was not efficient and the acreage of bean should be increased compared to rice which should be more limited in the pattern. In addition, rice and beans absorbed the higher water allocations in both models. It is recommended that for optimum use of productions factors and the farmers' income, and since water is a limiting factor in agricultural production compared to land, proper scheduling must be considered.

The main purpose of this study was developing a framework for the calibration of groundwater models. The automatic calibration with indirect approach has been considered and inverse problem in groundwater flow modeling was defined as an optimization problem. For solving the nonlinear optimization problem, genetic algorithm has been used. Minimizing the root of mean square deviation between observed and the corresponding computed heads in MODFLOW was considered as a calibration and evaluation criterion. Also, the hydraulic conductivity and specific yield (with known zonation) have been considered as model parameters. Changing some part of MODFLOW-2005 source codes and embedding the genetic algorithm, an optimization program (MF2005GA_P) has been developed in FORTRAN 90. Internal exchange of main variables (e.g. RMSE) has decreased the execution time noticeably compared to the approach that linked optimization and simulation codes. The program has been developed and primarily evaluated based on a hypothetical model. Next, Abhar aquifer was selected as a case study and the program performance in a real scale has been investigated. The results have shown about 40 percent decrease in RMSE compared to the trial and error calibration results.

In this research, single/multi waste load allocation problems are assessed with QUAL2Kw and multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm tools. Improving water quality in Gheshlagh River (minimizing DO violation from standard value) and minimizing the costs of construction and operation of municipal and industrial wastewater treatment plants are defined as objective functions in CBOD waste load allocation problem. Improving the integrated water quality index (which integrates the effects of T. Coliform, nitrogen concentration, phosphorous concentration, total suspended solid, and dissolved oxygen) in various monitoring stations is defined as water quality objective in multi waste load allocation problem. The results showed that in CBOD waste load allocation problem with no water treatment plant, the sum of DO violation in various monitoring stations was 4.5 mg/L. Also for no water quality standard violation, the construction and operation cost of wastewater treatment plant would be 290 ´109 Rials in 25 years. In multi waste load allocation problem the wastewater treatment plant costs increased considerably compared to the single waste load allocation problem.

Actors involved in water resources system play a great role in sustaining it. The importance of this role signifies the necessity for taking into consideration the social-ecological aspects in modeling such systems. Agent-based models are powerful tools in modeling social-ecological systems with evolving applications in different fields, especially water resources management, in recent years. In this paper, a general introduction of the agent-based modeling approach is presented and four main challenges in modeling water resources systems with these models i.e. Designing agents’ behaviors, linking social and ecological sections, spatial representation, and calibration, verification and validation have been discussed. Considering agricultural sector as the main user of water, well credited papers with high citations in this regard were analyzed to clarify the challenges and build a reliable approach for application of these models in water resources management.

In this study, a methodology is proposed to investigate the hypothesis that states the needs to change dam reservoir rule curves for the future and under climate change conditions. To adapt values of reservoir release to future climatic conditions a model is proposed for evaluation of climate change impacts on reservoir performance. The proposed methodology included LARS-WG model for transformation of CGCM model output under three emission scenarios of A1B, A2, B1 to regional scale, IHACRES model for simulating inflow stream to reservoir for future period of 2017-2030 validated using baseline data (1993-2006), and the evolutionary optimization model of Genetic Algorithms (GA), whcih is used to optimize reservoir operation. Finally, rule curve of dam operation was calculated for the past and future period according to three emission scenarios of A1B, A2, B1. Applying the proposed methodology in determination of rule curve in Dez Dam located in Khouzestan province showed that despite the modification of rule curve in order to achieve less values of shortages under climate change conditions for the future period, water supply security index would nevertheless decrease. The reduction percent would be between 1.7 to 5.7 percent under scenarios A2, A1B and B1. If the rule curve is not modified, higher values of shortages would occure. Finally, it should be mentioned that ignoring the effects of climate change and using baseline period’s operation rules for future period will reduce water supply security percentage.

River flow regime is dynamic and comprises different characteristics. Low flows, small floods, and high floods are among the most important components of the regime and play special roles in retaining the river in a healthy condition. Allocating the minimum environmental flow as a fixed figure, disregarding these important components of the river regime, is common in river management in the country. The present research, noticing the imposed danger to environment through such policies and using the ideas embedded in Building Block Method (BBM) as a holistic method, obtained the river environmental flows under the condition of data shortage. The employed criteria used in this research for defining the required thresholds to achieve the proper regime were; providing living creatures in the river with appropriate hydraulic conditions, retaining river bed morphology, protecting main channel shape, saving riparian vegetation cover, and coinciding with the watershed climate. Based on the results, wetted perimeter technique was employed when supplying drinking and industrial water, a combination of historical minimum discharge and Q95 was used when supplying agricultural water, a 2-year flood was used for saving river morphology and flushing sediment from its bed, and a 5-year flood was employed for supplying water to the river flood plain. As the main achievement, this research introduced a comprehensive ecological regime defining the required thresholds for a healthy river in an IWRM framework.

Complexity of evaporation process from a water body such as a lake or reservoir and lack of reliable and available data has led to limited developments in this field compared to research on other hydrological components especially where management of these water systems does not rely on more accurate spatial and temporal data. However the operation of reservoirs, development of a new storage, and water accounting strategies require more accurate evaporation estimates especially for drinking water supply in arid area. In this research a new method was developed for evaporation estimation presenting a different solution to the energy balance equation. The proposed approach, called reference and water surface energy balance (RWEB), carried out by defining the reference surface and simultaneously solution to the energy balance equation for both water and reference surfaces. The temperature and net radiation data were used in the proposed method. According to the input data, the RWEB method has the ability for remote sensing application and accordingly the remote sensing algorithm of RWEB was also developed. The method was applied to Doosti Dam Reservoir resulted in the distributed evaporation parameters and estimations.

Snow depth data from the Iranian Meteorological Organization was used for the period of January 31 to February 3 2014 in order to study the precipitation of heavy snow in the northern parts of Iran. 1.5 to 2 meters, in some parts more than 3 meters, of snow in 4 days were reported. To analyze the circulation patterns causing this precipitation, air temperature data, Geopotential height, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature, vertical velocity (Omega), and the orientation and zonal components of the wind were taken from the website of National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP / NCAR) with a resolution of 2.5 by 2.5 degree and the synoptic maps were prepared. The results showed that in the event of heavy snow, the Eastward surface pressure in East Europe and the establishment of a barrier system at 500 hPa in the region along with a very deep trough on the Caspian Sea with NE-SW Brewer caused positive vorticity and the resulting instability initiated the snow fall. On the other hand, the sea surface temperature anomalies in the southern part has exceeded 2o Centigrade and caused the transfer of moisture to the entering cold air mass as well as the extreme temperature gradient which triggered the formation of a Front in the Caspian area. The polar vortex in January and February were therefore located exactly on the region, escalating the condition.

According to the importance of evaluation and control of the non revenue water (NRW), it is essential to provide reduction solutions. However few studies have investigated a real case study from Iran in detail. In this research, a village in Northwestern Iran was selected as a case study. In the first step, the data was collected by extensive surveying (1150 connection meters) and by testing some users and village main water meters (based on Iran 556 code). Then the monthly consumption and the apparent losses were calculated based on IWA standard. Then based on the data, the behavior of the water users was evaluated and their effect on the water loss was assessed. Using the Borda count method for group decision making problem on eight alternative methods, the replacement and calibration of the water meters was selected as the best way to reduce the NRW. The research findings were communicated with the decision makers in rural water sector.

Among most important pollutants that cause water pollution, are nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural runoff acting as non-point source pollution. In this study, L-THIA model is used to calculate the amount of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, nitrate-nitrite, total soluble solids and suspended solids. SPSS software is used to evaluate the relation of these parameters to land use in the Zayanderoud river basin. Five subbasins with the highest land use diversity were selected and the boundary of each sub-basin and different land use coverage were determined with ArcView HEC-Geo-HMS extension. Then in each sub-basin 1 station was selected and the concentrations of phosphorus, total nitrogen, total soluble solids and suspended solids were measured from March 2015 to March 2016. Statistical analysis and Pearson correlation coefficient indicated that there is a significant relationship between all pollutants and land uses, except for dissolved phosphorus. Besides there was a significant relationship between residential area and bare lands with all pollutants, except for dissolved solids and nitrate-nitrite. Dissolved solids were meaningfully related to forest and grasslands. Considering accumulation zones of phosphorus and nitrogen in the watershed and identifying areas with high concentrations of these materials, management actions should be used to reduce the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus and ultimately decrease the amount of pollution in the watershed.

Probable Maximum Precipitation is the greatest depth of precipitation for certain duration. This study aimed derivation of Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) curves in Fars province for estimating 24-h Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP24) using two Hershfield statistical approaches and estimating the suitable frequency factor (km). For these purposes the maximum 24-hour precipitation data ((P24)max) with a period of 12-61 years were obtained for 52 stations with long-term data. The km values in the first and second approaches were estimated between 15.3 to 18.4 and 1.6 to 6.8, respectively. Also the corresponding PMP24 were between 280 to 850 and 112 to 380 mm respectively for the two approaches. The PMP24 values were estimated of 50 and 100 year return periods 714 and 771 mm, respectively. Results showed that the km values for the second approach are 75% lower than the km for the first approach. The ratios of PMP24 to (P24) max were obtained in the range of 2.6 to 7.4 and 1.4 to 2.7 respectively for the first and second approaches. Therefore, the second approach is more reliable. Also, the isohyet maps were drawn for PMP for the two approaches over the study area using DEM in GIS. DAD and area reduction curves were determined for each approach. Using these curves it is possible to convert point PMP24 values to areal values in the Fars province.

In recent years, data-driven modeling techniques have gained numerous applications in hydrology and water resources studies. River runoff estimation and forecasting is one of the research fields in which these techniques have several applications. In the current study, four data-driven modeling techniques of multiple linear regression, K-nearest neighbors, artificial neural networks, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems have been used to form runoff forecasting models and then their results have been evaluated. Also, effects of using some different scenarios to select predictor variables have been studied. It was evident from the results that using flow data related to one or two months ago in the predictor variables dataset can improve the accuracy of the results. In addition, comparison of general performances of the modeling techniques showed superiority of KNN models results among the studied models. The selected KNN model presented best performance with a linear correlation coefficient equal to 0.84 between observed flow data and predicted values and a RMSE equal to 2.64.

In this paper a genetic algorithm method is applied for the optimal design of sewer networks. By studying the list price and the records and reports of contractors of sewer network construction, a cost function is derived. The variables in this function are the pipe diameter and the pipe slope. The results showed the capability of the presented model for the optimal design of sewer networks. Optimization of Urmia sewer network using the proposed model led to 13 percent decrease in construction cost. Among the advantages of the proposed model are considering the execution aspects and avoiding drop at pipe joints. Proposing a method for calculating rainwater, the impact of rainwater on design of sewer networks was also examined. According to the results for the case study of Urmia city, considerable discharge of rainwater (up to 10 times of sanitary sewer discharge) enters into the sewer network which is not consistent with the primary design criteria of the separate network. Considering the rainwater in design of sewer networks would lead to considerable increases in pipe sizes and network costs.

Recent studies have proven the importance and functionality of phase space reconstruction model based on the delay time approach. The main scope in this research was to develop the phase space in order to analyze and describe the event inside it. The flow discharge has been considered for Band-e-Bahman station in daily, weekly and monthly scale in period of 1348 and 1385; Iranian calendar (1969 – 2006). Firstly the embedding dimension has been calculated as 3 based on the simplistic method. Then the phase space have been developed using the time delay approach. Results indicated less chaotic manner for daily data according to cloudy trajectories of the phase space. Monthly and weekly flow time series indicated more chaotic manner. According to phase space analysis; 5 very heavy one day raining at Band-e-Bahman station and 12 very heavy one day raining at basin could be distinguished. Besides, 6 and 11 intensive heavy raining with one week durability were pointed at the station and the basin, respectively. The river flow discharge varied between 0 to 140 cubic meter per second for daily scale, 1.5 to 60 cubic meter per second for weekly scale, and 1 to 23 cubic meter per second for monthly scale.

Detection and monitoring water resources is one of the principal steps in quality management of water resources. This is more critical in Sistan and Baluchestan province located in a hot and dry area with large deficiency in exploitable water resources. The aim of this study was to predict no-trend quality parameters in Chahnime No.1 using neural network and comparing it with Markov chain method. In the present study some parameters such as DO, temperature, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Ammonia, and Phosphorus have been considered. The mean error percentages in neural network method for these parameters were 5.5, 7.7, 12.8, 5.6, 52.4, and 4.1, respectively. In comparison, the mean error percentages of Markov chain scheme were respectively 11.2, 8.9, 5.3, 12.9, 33.9, and 8.4. The results showed that neural network method provided better results compared to Markov chain method.