IRANIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS
Year:2013 | Volume:4 | Issue:12|Papers Count:6

This paper analyzes the effects of relative price variability and skewness as aggregate supply shocks and liquidity as aggregate demand shocks on inflation in the Iranian economy. For this purpose, the total and state urban price index and M2 for period 1383-1390 and Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) method has been used. The results show that relative price variability and M2 has positive and meaningful effect on inflation. Also, relative price skewness have negative effect on inflation. So, it is needed to consider supply and demand shocks simultaneously in disinflation policies.

The ARIMA model is a precise forecasting model for short time periods, but the limitation of a large amount of historical data is required. However, in our society, due to uncertainty and rapid development of new technology, we usually have to forecast future situations using little data in a short span of time. The historical data must be less than what the ARIMA model employs which limits its application. The fuzzy regression is able to forecast model which is suitable for the uncertain condition and with little attainable historical data. But the results of this model cannot be encouraging because the spread is wide in some cases. The researchers do try to combine the advantages of the fuzzy regression and ARIMA models to formulate the FARIMA model and to overcome the limitations of the fuzzy regression and ARIMA model. Therefore, in this study, a synthetic fuzzy auto regressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) is employed to forecast crude oil price. The findings show that the proposed method can get more satisfactory results.

Science and technology is the most important force of promoting economic and social development. Along with the pace of globalization, science and technology increases the demand for talents, physical sources, transfer of technology and investment in the world. In this relation, industry with developed technology will not only be the motor of world economic growth, but also industry is the important privilege in keeping the countries in the competitive markets.For this reason, the level of industry with high technology is the main determinant of the level of economic and social development of a country and the kind of the role of that country in the world economy.The purpose of this research is to compare the rate of effectiveness of economic growth in the selected developing and developed countries on research and development of Nanotechnology and R & D influence in those countries, using panel data approach over the period of 2000-2007. Findings show that Nanotechnology research and development has positive and meaningful effects on the economic growth of these countries and the hypothesis of more effectiveness of economic growth coming from the research and the Nanotechnology development in the developed countries relative to the developing countries is rejected.

Food security & healthy nutrition are considered as the most significant human needs and a factor for economic growth and development of the countries. Consumer culture and financial potential are two key factors for the individual in society to access proper food and take in the required food stuff & nutrients that among this government also plays it role in order to increase financial capability and use supporting tools to direct the society consumer culture. therefor this main aim in this article is to determine of the optimal food basket based on two factors as financial potential and food knowledge. So that this basket has been determined each person monthly in various income deciles and also separating city (household sample 18729) and village (household sample19787) for the year 2011 by using modeling different expenditures and considering the collection of 24 food stuff and 30 nutrients. The results indicates that the monetary (rials) value of the food optimal basket of an urban person is more than the rural. this difference is meaningful in high income deciles. Analyzing between present & optimal food basket shift implies that the first 4 income deciles in urban area and the first 5 income deciles in rural area need supports from the government to achieve food security.

The survey of energy, as a strategic commodity in the world and also how to analyze the effect of changes prices on the key its factors in the economy, has always been important. The significance of this case in IRAN is multiplied, because the policy making in this country as one of huge owners of energy resources in the world, is not only effective on domestic and foreign petroleum price, but also will be effective on other variables in the economy. On the other hand, non-oil export expansion has been attempted by policy makers in recent decades, following the increasing volatility of oil prices and its export revenue. Accordingly, methanol, as one of the most used petrochemical products, has great potential in the field of production and non-oil exports in that country.The main aim of this survey is short- run and long run relationships between crude oil and methanol prices from last week of 1387/10 to last week of 1390/6. To do so, the VECM model has been used. Our findings suggest that there is a significant long-run relationship between crude oil and methanol prices, while this is not true in the short run. So, petrochemical companies must always regulate the oil price fluctuations in order to control their product markets, because the stability of foreign exchange earnings from methanol exports as one of non-oil exports items is faced with uncertainty, with increasing crude oil price changes.

This paper attempts to model the demand function for natural gas in residential and commercial sectors in Iran using econometric approach of smooth transition regression in a continuous and nonlinear manner. To this end, the annual data of natural gas real price and electricity real price in residential and commercial sectors, revenue, the number of natural gas consumers and mean temperature for the period 1972 to 2009 have been utilized as the impact factors of natural gas demand in residential and commercial sectors. The results indicate that natural gas demand follows a two-regime pattern of LSTR1 considering the real price of natural gas in residential and commercial sectors as the transition variable. The LSTR1 model estimated the regime switching point, or the threshold extreme, to be at 60.95 Rials-Cubic Meter of real price of natural gas, and determined the slope parameter to be 27.6. Variables such as revenue, real price of gas, and the number of consumers affect the natural gas consumption positively in residential and commercial sectors and their effectiveness increase as the threshold extreme is passed. Natural gas demand. On the other hand, it maintains an inverse relation with the real price of natural gas whose effectiveness increases with entry into the second regime.