Journal of Economic Research and Policies
Year:2020 | Volume:28 | Issue:93|Papers Count:12

In the energy economics literature, one of the most important approaches to managing energy demand is to improve energy efficiency, which is associated with a concept called a rebound effect. The rebound effect causes the energy saving (due to improved efficiency) to be less than expected. Considering the importance of using oil products in the Iranian economy, the present paper tries to track the factors affecting the rebound of petroleum products (gasoline, gas oil and other products) by applying a 5% shock to improving their efficiency and quantitatively, for this purpose, the analysis of the rebound effect at two macro levels and a part is done in two steps in the form of a computable general equilibrium model. The results of this paper, indicate that among the oil products, improvement of the efficiency of "other oil products" has the least effect on the economy-wide rebound effect, and improving the efficiency of gasoil has the highest economy-wide rebound effect. The results of the decomposition of the rebound effect at the macro level are those of the manufacturing sector, which are the major consumers of oil products (a larger share of the total energy consumption of production), the main factors in the formation of the rebound effect, so that in the case of gasoline, the "road transport" section accounts for 35. 2 percent of the economy-wide rebound effect. In the final demand side, urban households account for 20% of the economy-wide rebound effect. The decomposition of the rebound effect at sector level also indicates the domination of the mechanism of substitution effect on output effect in the formation of the rebound effect.

One of the main purpose of the Central Bank Supervisor is assessing of banking performance and identification of high risk banks, issued a warning, proposes enforcement action to amend banking operations. Since a formal warning may expose a bank to bankruptcy risk, first of all informal notification is sent to the bank at risk. So The effectiveness of informal warnings on improving performance of banks is important. In this paper, due to the lack of warnings Statistics Monitoring and Due to the Warnings apply theoretical and empirical literature in the field of monitoring, An appropriate measure for this variable design and its effectiveness will be evaluated on the performance of the banking network. First, using the Probit model, we estimate the probability of receiving notice of the supervision and then design a Panel model for monitoring the effectiveness of the exercise caution on the performance. The results of the model suggest that warning of supervisor has lag effective in improving the performance of banks.

Increased life expectancy and reduced fertility rates have led to aging which is one of the main causes of the pension funds imbalances in Iran’ s pension funds. In order to resolve these imbalances, some reforms are required. The first option is to use parametric reforms, such as changing contribution rates of the pension system. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of aging and changes of contribution rates on macroeconomic variables. The model used in this research is the Overlapping Generations General Equilibrium Model with imperfect labor market. The findings indicate that aging leads to a reduction in the rate of interest (4%), an increase in labor demand and a drop in unemployment (3%) in the labor market. It also leads to an increase in the cost of the pension system (7%) as a percentage of GDP. With parametric reforms, including increase contribution rates, leads to the reduction of the pension system costs (2. 5%), But young people have to pay more contribution than elder at the time of their employment, and intergenerational justice will suffer. With a reduction in the contribution rates, in the long run, saving increases (due to 7% reduction in interest rates) and consumption also will increase (1%), which will lead to improve intergenerational justice and economic growth.

One of the important issues that have been the focus of economists in developed and developing countries for the last several decades is the study of the effect of External Shocks on macroeconomic variables of those countries. In this paper In order to investigate the effect of external shocks including world oil price, exchange rate and global inflation shocks on macroeconomic variables of Iran, We solved a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the new Keynesian approach. The present study uses seasonal time series data from 1989 to 2016 to calculate the steady-state values of some variables in equilibrium state and to quantify other parameters from previous studies. Our main finding shows that GDP and non-oil production increase after a positive oil price shock. Our main finding shows that GDP and non-oil production increase after a positive oil price shock. In the case of oil production, at least in the short run, oil production can be somewhat low elasticity to price fluctuations. Also, exchange rate shock has a significant impact on domestic macroeconomic variables. As for the global inflation shock, we can say that, it has a weak influence on domestic variables.

The successful economies are ones that have effective system to transform knowledge and technology in economic capacity. They have complex system that is an important sector of their economy. The current approach moving to knowledge based society is attention to R&D activities and high technologies. In this path, industrial companies can have a vital role in creating, developing and applying of innovation. In this paper, meanwhile analyze the absorptive capacity and innovation in Iran; we analyzed the determinant factors of R&D activity as a proxy for absorptive capacity and innovation in Iran's industries by using GMM approach in dynamic panel data (DPD) for the period of 2009-2013. The all industries are classified in 23 industrial sectors on the base of two-digit codes of ISIC. The results showed the firm size, labor productivity, and value of production and export are determinant factors of innovational activities in Iran's industries. Therefore, we suggest the support of improving of absorptive capacity and innovation through attention to determinant factors.

Actual research determines based on what mechanisms the incumbents can compete with the entrants. For this reason, we want to find out the influence of every each of the mechanisms (price, innovation and branding) that Taxi as an incumbent needs to rely on to compete with Snapp and Tap30. In actual research, the uncooperative model of Snapp and Tap30 is developed considering the game theory. Results of the research indicate that as innovation and branding costs increase, the demand for using provided services of Snapp and Tap30 increases as well. On the other hand, the increase in innovation and branding costs, leads to decrease for demand and pay-off for Taxi services. Therefore, If Taxi wants to stay in competition with Snapp and Tap30, it only needs to react to pricing and to determine the price of provided services close to Snapp and Tap30.

Regional policy requires the use of a suitable economic model. One of the common patterns in this field is the multi-region input-output model in which the national economy is subdivided into regions with different comparative advantages and on the basis of specific policies. Multi-regional input-output data preparation in Iran has always been one of the main challenges in using them to measure the impact of policymaking in regions. In this study, in order to overcome the above challenge, the hybrid Location Quotient-Gravity method is introduced for the first time in Iran and has been empirically prepared for three regions of Iran. In hybrid Location Quotient-Gravity Method for Providing trade data between regions, utilizes the most space-economy factors (supplier size, demand size, total economy size, and distance) simultaneously. In the Experimental section, in order to operate the above method are used the National Input-output Table of 2011 and the statistics of regional accounts of provinces that are divided into three regions: Tehran, oil-rich regions (including Khuzestan, Bushehr, Ilam, Kohkiloyeh and Boyer-Ahmad and Trans-region) and have been calculated using three regional data-output coefficients. The results show that coefficients are different in the three study areas. Meanwhile, Tehran province has the most spillover effects among the study areas and the rest economy has the most coefficient.

In this study, the effect of fluctuations of asset markets (exchange rate, oil price and stock market index) on financial instability index over a period of 1388-1397 monthly is investigated by using the Markov Switching model. The wavelet transform model is used to extract exchange rate fluctuations, oil prices and stock market index. The results show that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations in different regimes and different time periods is different, so that in the short run the exchange rate fluctuations in the high regime of the financial instability index have a different effect than the other periods. Oil price fluctuations have a positive and significant effect in the medium-and long-term periods and in all regimes, and this effect will be stronger in the long run. Also, fluctuations in the stock market have a negative and significant effect only in the short run and under conditions of low regime of financial instability index. These results show that fluctuations have different effects with respect to time period as well as level of financial instability. Therefore, the management of foreign exchange rate and stock markets should take into the account of financial instability level and the timeframe for fluctuations.

Due to the capacity of adjacent regions interactivity in economic field, industry development in a region not only increases the employment of that region but also it may increase the employment of adjacent regions by expanding related industries. So in this study after spatial effect test, the effect of tourism industry development on employment studied in the form of spatial dynamic panel data for the period of (2011-2015) in different provinces. The results of the study in the form of spatial dynamic panel data and due to space Durbin estimator shows that tourism has significant spatial effect on employment, and its development not only increases employment in aimed provinces but also increases the employment of adjacent provinces as well. Also according to the results price index has negative and gdp per capita has positive effect on provinces employment but the effect of real wages on employment is not significant.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting TFP in the East and West Asia in order to discover the reasons for the difference in total productivity in each of these regions. For this purpose, factors affecting TFP, especially human capital and oil rents, were investigated using several static and dynamic models and forming two distinct groups from East and West Asia. The results of the static models show that human capital, oil rents, trade openness and energy intensity are the most important reasons for the difference in total factor productivity in East and West Asian countries. Human capital and oil rents in West Asia have led to a decline in TFP, while human capital in East Asia has led to an increase in TFP. The degree of trade openness and energy intensity in West Asia are also important contributors to TFP growth while in the East Asia they are among the deterrents. Also, based on the results of dynamic models, total factor productivity in the past period has had the greatest role in total factor productivity in the current period for West and East Asian countries.

Over the past two centuries, the role of government and the composition of government spending have changed in most countries of the world. Theoretically, there is no consensus among economists about the size of the state and the degree of state interference in the economy. On the one hand, one can observe classics and market's proponents who believe in a small government and little interference in the economy, and on the other hand socialists and Keynes believe in a lot of interference and a large government. This study, using data during 1967-2016 and Using nonlinear unit root test of caner and Hansen 2001, the nonlinear Co-integration of Enders and Siklos 2001 and Hansen's threshold regression model and based on the study of Annaman (2004), aimed to estimate the range of government optimal size for the Iranian economy by estimating a three-regime Non-linear threshold regression model. The results of this study show that the optimal size of the government in terms of current government expenditure (the ratio of current government expenditure to GDP) in the Iranian economy ranges from 10. 12 to 18. 25% and the optimal size of the government in terms of capital government expenditure (the ratio of capital government expenditure to GDP) in the Iranian economy is around 9. 05 to 4. 32%. Also, the degree of integration and co-integration of the variables follows a nonlinear threshold autoregressive process. As such that In the first place, some of the economic variables in Iran, according to the situation, have different degree of integration. Also Shrinking shocks, in comparison with increasing shocks create further deviations in the long run trend of the economic growth.

Stock market volatility is evaluated by measuring the variance of the market that is evaluated through consumption growth volatility in the framework of pricing of CCAPM models. This theory is not consistent with revealed facts, in reality; because consumption growth is very smooth but stock market appears highly volatile; this is famous to stock market volatility puzzle. In this regard, the new findings suggest that the combination of the traditional approach to the agent of systemic risk of bubble make it easier to interpret the market volatility puzzle better than before. The main objective of this research is to interpret the stock market volatility puzzle due to the systemic risk of bubble in the security market in the period of 07 / 1387 to 06 / 1395. In this regard, the systemic risk of bubble in the securities market was investigated by using of the “ Supremum generalized standard Dickey-Fuller tests", then market volatility puzzle was analyzed by usage of the results. The results showed that securities market has experienced one bubble periods (01/1392 to 01/1393). The results also showed that the traditional approach (regardless of bubble risk factor) is not able to explain the stock market puzzle, but bubble risk-based methodology is provided a better explain to stock market volatility.