GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH
Year:2004 | Volume:18 | Issue:4(71)|Papers Count:14

The main purpose of this research is predicting and analyzing precipitation in Sanandaj and Miandoab stations. First the data obtained from these stations were analysed by drought indexes (Z-score, percent of normal precipitation). The results of the analyses show that weak and sever drought had the maximum and minimum frequncy. Variation of precipitation during 1961 through 2001 was examined using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARlMA). For each station an stochastic model was developed and the future values were estimated. According to the estimated sums, the wet years in each of the stations were determined. The innovation variance and F-test were applied for detecting the variability. The results of these tests did not show any dominant and widespread climatic change.

Since Nov 18th 1991,when Republicof Azerbaijan regainedits independence,a growing trend of political and intellectual activities has appeared among the Azerbaijani"s statemen, parties, press, and intellectuals indicating a necessity for joining Azeri- speaking provinces of Iran to the newly independent state of Azarbaijan. Though this has rarely been announced formally and publically, radical nationalists in Azerbaijan have always been trying to realize this dream. This article studies this strategic matter in four different stages: 1.Statement of the matter, historical background, and its dimensions. 2.The opportunities and the possibility for realizing this matter. 3.Problems and difficulties. 4.Conclusion.

Misho Mountain Chain is part of Azerbaijan plateau in Northwest of Iran. Alluvial fans occur in the Marand Plain situated in the North of Misho Mountain. Two distinct parts of Misho have different Litholagic and tectonic properties , thereforeI alluvial fans of eastern Misho are different from western Misho. Eastern Misho alluvial fans are Large and have gentle slope and large rugged drainage basins while western Misho alluvial fans are small, steep with less rugged basins. Quantitative analysis demonstrates that there are strong fan-basin morphometric relationships. Statistical analysis of fan-basin area relationships indicate that these relationships are statistically significant for all alluvial fans (eastern and western). Fan area increases than basin area on eastern alluvial fans than on western ones. This difference is due to different Lithologic and tectonic properties of basins. Statistial analysis of the relationship between fan slope and basin ruggedness indicates that it is not significant for eastern Misho alluvial fans. On the basis of this analysis, fan slopes increase more gentely than basin ruggedness for both fan types. This is more considrable on eastern Misho alluvial fans. This Condition might be due to the higher discharge of basins that decreases the fan slope on eastern Misho alluvial fans.

Any human group enjoying a structure and organization, consider itself a mission, either explicity or implicitly. This mission or the goals of the organization may sometimes be mentioned. in the consitution of the organization. In Post Renaissance period, especially after the Industrial Revolution, modem universities were created. They set a mission and a number of objectives for themselves, some of which are known by the public and some others, usually the most important and the political ones, only by the intellectual elites. Setting goals and objectives is not specific to western universities. The same is also true for other groups and organizations, including political parties. It is believed that underlying any structure is an ideology. The present article tries to study and analyze the ideologies dominating the Iranian geography from the beginning to the present; that is, from the creation of geography department at Tehran university up to now. Being the first attempt in this domain, the author maintains that there are some deficiencies in the article and needs more elaboration and analysis in future attempts.

In regard with the relationship between space and policy making. This article deals with the spatial effects of tourism policy in pre and post Islamic Revolution in Iran, with a comparative approach. It studies Babolsar as a major ecotourist region in north of Iran, on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea. The research is analytical/ descriptive done by the Panel technique with the help of library, documentary, and field study methods. Using SPSS package, analysis of the data was done by both qualitative and quantitative methods, such as logical analysis and Chi-square, T-test, etc. The results show that the difference in dominant values and ideology in pre and post revolution have affected the tourism policies in Iran. On the one hand, jobs and spatial elements, directly or indirectly related to tourism, enjoyed a boom, specially in the recent decade. On the other, shores and coastal environments have been increasingly polluted in the Post Islamic revolution period.

Attempt has been made in this article to determine the factors nourishing the bases of urban economy in Ilam Province. The results obtained conclusively prove that the urban economy in the afore- mentioned province, has not sufficiently availed itself of the opportunities and resources provided by the surrounding villages, as Bobek states in "Rent Capitalism" theory. However, the government has given impetus to the urban economy of Ilam province, through the revenues obtained from oil sale. This practice is in accordance with the "Government Urbanisation" theory as propounded by Dr. M. T. Rahnamaee.

Studying social structure of Zahidan, with less than 80 years of age, the article discusses that the first residents of old Dozdab, newly named Zahidan, as a linking point between India and Iran, have been the Balouch, used to live in huts, and the Sikhs. It is believed that the name Zahidan has been derived from the Sikhs" special character. The Sikhs come from India and Pakistan. They entered Iran as workers to work for Qetta railway construction. They made their early houses as well as a place for worship on Sa"di and Imam Khomeini avenues first. At present the social domain of this minority with its special characteristics within the old and central parts of the city is clearly observable. The most important customs and rites of Sikhs are their ceremonies of worship, marriage, burying their deads and a peaceful life in the city along with the Iranian natives.

Nomadism has an old history in Iran. Compared with sedantary life, it has however experienced drastic changes as a result of social, economic, and technological developments. These changes show themselves in the dramatic decrease of nomads from20 to 25 percent of the whole population at the beginning of the present century to less than 3 percent at the moment. Considering the important role of the nomads in the national economy, this decrease is worying. The present situation has its roots partly in the limitataions imposed on nomads in using the pasture lands. The present study deals with the case of migrating nomads from Sistan to southern Khorassan due to the environmental pressures and limitations imposed by man.

Due to the importance of temperature increase and it"s environmental and socio-economic effects on micro and macro planning, it has received much attention in scientific communities. Of these, is the effect on the behavior and pattern of pressure systems which is of global importance in changing NAO (North Atlantic Oscilliation) behavior in the last decades. Attempts have been made to investigate Mashhad temperature behavior and its relation to NAO by using statistical methods, ARIMA and transfer function models. There are three phases in the temperature and NAO time series that have relatively synchronized in time occurrence. In the last century Mashhad temperature has experienced an increase by 0.004495 ± 0.003992 °C while NAO trend has decreased by -0.00 1 ± -0.00496. The best ARIMA model fitted to Mashhad temperature is ARIMA (0, 1, 1). It is clear that difference at lag I(d= 1) in above model refers to a linear trend in the temperature mean. It is found that there is a relation between temperature change and NAO by 0.49, weighted in transfer function model. At last a linear 20 year prediction is computed for both ARIMA and transfer function models. As shown in the main text there is an increasing trend by 0.006 to 0.0068 °C per year.

Air Pressure as a fluid is the most important factor that controls the atmosphere. Variability forecast of atmospheric pressure will help other parameters such as precipitation rate be predicted. Considering the climatic change in terms of synoptic patterns, this article studies the Middle East pressure data and the regional synoptic patterns of(15 N and 30 E) to (55 N and 50 E). In this regard, after obtaining the data pressure in the period of 1961-2000 from CRU, these were used for drawing the synoptic maps. The annual and seasonal maps were drawn for the period of 1961-1990 and compaired with the statistical maps in the same period. The results showed that if the low pressure increases in 20 N(over the Golf of Omman) the precipitation will increase in the south of Iran, and if the high pressure increases in 50 N(over Kazaghistan) the precipitation will decrease in northern Iran. Furthermore, an increase in the northeastern -southeastern pressure gradient can cause more precipitation over Iran.

In order to identify the geomorphological factors of overland flows in Gamasiab basin, twelve physiographic and Geomorphic variables of sub-basins related to the flood were studied through the use of multiple regression within a 25 year period. The analysis of the data indicated seven significant and important factors. These variables are: Coefficients of Gravelious and run off slope of the main channel, slop of the basin, length, the area of the basin, and mean height of the basin. The final model was level. significant at α=0.01level.