Journal of Quantitative Economics
Year:2019 | Volume:15 | Issue:4|Papers Count:7

The relationship between inflation and economic growth is a contentious issue. The present study aimed to test the hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. The study involves D8 countries over the period of 1994 through 2015. Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model is employed to estimate the threshold of inflation and its effects on economic growth. The study finds that there exists a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth for the inflation rates above the threshold level of 3. 3%, above which inflation starts impeding economic growth in D8 countries. The results indicate that there are two transition functions, each of which has an inflation threshold. In addition, in this study, the elasticity of economic growth was calculated for these countries.

The aim of this study is evaluation of the effect of increasing the production of Yazd economy sectors on water consumption in same and other sectors. For this purpose, extended input-output model is used and intersect oral water relationships in Yazd Province are calculated divided into internal and external sources. Results show that direct water requirement to supply an additional unit of final demand in all sector is about 81m3. However, to supply this additional final demand, more than 92 m3 of water is consumed indirectly. Results of water transaction coefficients show that if all 20 economic sectors consume an additional cubic meter of water, in addition to 20 m3 of direct consumption, more than 94. 4 m3 of water is consumed indirectly in the whole Yazd economy, of which about 91. 7 m3 is external. These results highlight the importance of considering the indirect consumption and separation of internal and external source of virtual water in water plantings.

Money demand is one of the most important economic variables which is a critical component in appointing and choosing an appropriate monetary policy because it determines the transmission of policy-driven change in monetary aggregates to real sector. Demand for M1 is simulated in this inquiry using FA and COA algorithms and three functional forms (linear, quadratic and exponential) are considered. Investigating the forecasting accuracy criteria indicated that the most subtle model is used for forecasting money demand up to 1404 horizon under three (optimistic, pessimistic and the middle) scenarios. More minuteness of COA, choosing exponential form as the most subtle functional form, the direct relation of GDP and the exchange rate with money demand, the reverse relation of inflation rate with money demand, 11. 23 and 6. 29 and 0. 68 percent average growth rate of money under optimistic, pessimistic and the middle scenarios, and money demand decrease in pessimistic scenario form 1401, are some of the main results. The results of scenario designing and executing show that the efficiency and consequences of monetary authorities in accompany with money demand are dependent on appropriate policies about inflation and exchange rate.

An interregional input-output analysis can illustrate the full picture of trade between regions at the economic sect oral levels. This analysis is due to the availability of an interregional input-output table (IRIO). Since the IRIO tables are not provided by an official institution in Iran, in the regional input-output literature, it is necessary to use no survey methods. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to estimate the trade between two major provinces, Tehran and Isfahan in order to prepare a two-region IRIO table that the sum of which is not the national economy. This table can measure not only the trade between the regions but also prepare the international trade in the above areas. The main data bases of the research are: The National Statistical Input-Output Table of 1390, and the regional accounts of Tehran and Isfahan provinces at the level of 72 economic sectors from the Statistical Center of Iran, which have been aggregated in to 9 sectors to describe the results. Findings indicate that, Isfahan province’ s imports from Tehran is 5 times of Tehran province’ s imports from Isfahan. The greatest value of sect oral import of the two regions belongs to other manufacturing sectors. The value of total trade between Tehran and Esfahan is 546 and 551 trillion rails respectively. The highest international sect oral imports and exports of the provinces of Tehran and Isfahan are related to the manufacture of various chemicals, metals, minerals, machinery, equipment and tools sector and other manufactures. The calculation of the import coefficient shows that the highest import coefficient of Tehran province from Isfahan is 0. 039 and the highest import coefficient of Isfahan province from Tehran is 2. 439 and both are in the section "other manufacture" of industry.

Considering the importance of non-cash exports in Iran's economy, in this study using a nonlinearmethod, the effect of factors affecting non-oil exports of the country which have been emphasized in empirical and theoretical studies including real exchange rate, economy growth, and degree of openness of the economy has carefully been studied. Using the annual data between the years 1347 and 1395 and the TVP-VAR model, Iran's non-oil exports were modeled. Based on the results of the research, the effect of the variables on the growth of non-oil exports during the study period changed, so that the effects of economic growth rate, openness of economy and growth of non-oil exports on non-oil exports were positive with slight changes in the variables. During the period under consideration, while the effects of the exchange rate on non-oil exports changed more strongly, it was negative in the years 1351 to 1356 and 1372 to 1395, but it turned out to be positive in the years 1357 to 1371. The results of the present research indicate the role of the composition of the exported goods of the country and the conditions governing the economy of the country in shaping and influencing the model variables on non-oil exports.

Strong democratic institutions and improving the quality of governance by restructuring government spending and reducing government rents can facilitate the process of technological change, economic growth and improvement of economic performance. Thus, in the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in endogenous growth models, attention to the size, role and quality of governance is very important. In this regard, the purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of governance quality and composition of government expenditures on the dynamics of capital, consumption and economic growth within the framework of an endogenous growth pattern in Iran's economy. Therefore, after specifying the dynamic behavior of capital stock per capita, output and consumption per capita, calibration and sensitivity analysis was carried out with respect to the quality of governance. The results indicated that the quality of governance by influencing the structure of government spending and reducing government rents increased capital per capita, output per capita, consumption per capita and welfare in the steady state.

In spite of extensive research on predicting financial distress and bankruptcy there seems to be no acceptable pattern for predicting based on known financial theories. Therefore. More research in this field will lead to better understanding of financial crisis. In this research, we tried to find a prediction pattern using the Cox model. Using a company-year sample list of 19536 companies during the time period between 1384 and1395, this study investigates dynamic probability predictions for Iranian firms. This estimated pattern uses a combination of accounting data and stock market information. The pattern provides predictions of survival probability using the cox model with time-varying variables. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using receiver operating characteristics curve and the Brier score. It was found that the dynamic model has acceptable predictive power.