Iranian Journal of Trade Studies
Year:2006 | Volume:10 | Issue:40|Papers Count:11

This study analizes the dynamic effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables using structural vector auto regression (SVAR). To identify structural innovation from VAR residual, we use the Blanchard and Quah (1989) technique, imposing a set of long-run economic restrictions that are added to purely statistical restrictions of VAR. To derive these long-run restrictions we generalize Haffmaister and Roldos (1997) model using annual data to a typical oil exporting country during 1960-2003. This model is applied for Indonesia, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia as well as Iran, and the results are compared. The result of this study shows that exogenous degree of oil price in Saudi Arabia is lower than Iran and Indonesia. Oil price shocks play a substantial role in explaining Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and imports movements in Saudi Arabia and Iran, while import shocks is the main source of output and import fluctuations in Indonesia and Kuwait. For all countries, the effects of oil price shock on output, import and consumer price is positive and external shocks are the main source of all fluctuations in long-run.

Stock price forecasting is very important in stock exchange, because it indicates desirable or undesirable investing condition for investors and stockholders. Among forecasting methods, neural networks and fuzzy logic were used in many areas and have some advantages and disadvantages. So, this paper intends to combine fuzzy reasoning theory with neural networks in order to improve the precision and convergence speed of forecasting model. Thus, a neural network-driven fuzzy reasoning system is proposed on the basis of improved Takagi-Sugeno reasoning model.In this paper, a neuro-fuzzy approach was employed to forecast stock price and it was compared with ARIMA model based on six statistical parameters. The experimental results showed that the fuzzy neural networks based on six indices measurement was better than ARIMA model and has such properties as fast convergence, high precision and strong function approximation ability and it is suitable for real stock price forecasting.

In the present article, the effects of tariff reductions on Iran’s and EU’s mutual trade have been measured. Calculations have been based on the data related to variables such as price elasticities of import substitutions, the volume of current foreign trade between Iran and EU, current tariff rates and the amount of tariff reductions to be made after entry in to force of the agreement. The research's findings are as follows:If EU undertakes it’s commitment to tariff reduction as provided in "TCA" , the total amount of EU's import from Iran will increase about $77.7 million out of which $38.2 million comes from the "trade creation" and $39.5 million from the "trade diversion" effects. On the other hand, if Iran cuts down its tariff rates to half of the current rates in 2003 (decreasing it from 27.3% to 13.65%), the total amount of Iran’s import from EU countries will increase about $3520.93 million out of which $1615.2 million will be caused by the "trade creation" and $1905.73 milion by the "trade diversion" effects.The comparison of these figures indicates that Iran’s import will increase about 45.5 times as much as the EU’s import. One of the most important reasons for this unbalanced change is the different size of parties’ economies and their current unbalanced trade. The most part of increased market access in Iran would belong to its main partners among EU countries such as Germany, France, Italy, UK, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria and Spain.

This paper analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on the export and import demand of selected developing countries, utilizing dynamic panel data technique. The results match our theoretical expectations. Particularly, export duties shrink the export demand while trade liberalization stimulates it. On the other hand, the estimation of import demand indicates that decrease in import tariff and trade liberalization has a positive effect on the import growth in developing countries especially in Iran. Our findings confirm this hypothesis that removing trade distortions have a positive and strong effect on the export and import. Also, when trade liberalization occurs, income and price elasticities will increase.

One of the most important problems in the industry is lack of competitiveness, because of transparency is very poor. In the other words, information is not enough for decision making. Then transactions don't have good efficiency. If we have a lot of suitable, on time and relative information, customers buy optimal alternative and on the other hand manufacturers try to keep their market share. This problem, lack of transparency, is a big problem in the informatics companies. Then a project, entitled ranking of informatics companies, was defined. In this paper, we searched the literature of ranking in the world, techniques and methodologies of ranking, and models of organization diagnosis. Result of this paper, was designing a model for ranking informatics companies, rank based on three fields of input, process, and output. Then we generate a quantitative technique for measuring informatics companies' score. And at last, we ranked informatics companies.

This paper analyzes the welfare effects of a preferential trade agreement among D8 group on Iranian economy using a partial equilibrium model. It has been preformed at six and two digit HS category as well as for consumer, capital, and intermediate goods and raw materials. The results show that this agreement would have positive welfare effects for Iran and would increase Iran's export and import in trade with other members. Eventually, in order to minimize the negative effects of this agreement for Iran (such as trade balance deficit), some recommendations for trade negotiation with other countries are presented.

The purpose of this paper is the analysis of the impact of Trade liberalization on the economic growth of OPEC Nations, using the literature of trade liberalization and economic growth with the approach of panel data and "fixed effect method." This paper demonstrates that trade openness positively affects the economic growth, whereas trade barriers are negatively associated with growth for these countries. The results show that oil export, which it has the major share in their exports, has negative effect on their economic growth because when oil incomes increase, their imports raises, so that domestic products are faced with problems.

This article seeks to estimatie import demand functions of consumer, capital and intermidate goods in Iran’s economy (1338-82), employing SUR method.The results indicate that a 1 percent increase in the relative price leads to -1.2, -0.38 and -0.35 percent increase, respectively, in consumer, capital and intermidate goods imports. Also 1 percent increase in gross national product leads to 0.16 and 0.21 percent increase, respectively, in capital and intermidate goods imports.

Movement and Boost in non-oil export is identified as main strategy for export policy and principal pivotal aims of 3rd and 4th Five-year Economic, Social & Cultural Development Plans of I. R. IRAN. Success in this policy is related to best utilization & combination of labor force, resources, materials, technology and desired economic & commercial management & policies.One of the productive export-oriented section which could have proper share & contribution is ceramic tile industry. This industry benefits from natural advantages of the country in this field. Although ceramic titles production in IRAN had historical background some sings indicated this role has declined in current years. Therefore in this survey we calculated the revealed comparative advantages (RCA) and export potential capacity for Iran’s ceramic titles to the Persian Gulf countries, we also did trend and share assessment of IRAN ceramic titles export to these countries & compared it to Iran’s competitors share in those markets during 1999-2003, to see which factors have been responsible for Iran’s declining export shares in these markets and to offer some recommendations in this context.

Today, one of the success factors of pioneer companies is the amount of paying attention to marketing with improving product and service processes in this direction. As Jack Welch (late CEO of General-Electric) mentioned: marketing must be used in each segment of organization departments. By caring this advice, could prevent resulting crisis of imported Gluten (from China). We have tried to identify and rank main success factors of this product.In this article we tried to identify the situation, amount of affection and mutual relatios of four main tools (4p or marketing mix) of marketing. This mission is started with collection of primary and secondary information from specialists (Delphi method) and will continue with research-modelling and raw-data analyzing to reach to level of information analysis and statistical deducing. Finally we will rank elements of marketing-mix through Friedman test. Finally, we will identify and rank the main success factors of Chinese gluten.