Iranian Journal of Trade Studies
Year:2006 | Volume:10 | Issue:38|Papers Count:11

Eliminating subsidizing policy has been a controversial issue in Iran's economy especially for price of energy. Most economists believe that inflation in Iran's economy is a monetary phenomena and not due to increasing energy prices. In this paper I studied the impact of one hundred percent rise in price of energy to see how other economic sectors' prices will be changed, using an input-output table analysis. Our findings indicate that the rate of inflation will be increased by 4.49 and the highest rate of inflation is 16.1 which is related to transport and inventories sectors.

This paper forecasts domestic cement consumption in Iran for period 1382-1390.The best forecasting model is chosen with comparing the simulation performance of competing models in reduced and structural forms. The results indicate that the reduced forms specified as conditional and unconditional VAR systems outperform the structural ones in ex post forecasting period according to the forecast error statistics. The VAR system containing four variables: cement consumption, construction value added, relative cement price and real non-oil GDP, produces the best forecasts among the alternatives. While, the variables real GDP and relative cement price are assumed (weakly) exogenous in the conditional VAR, all the variables are modeled in the unconditional one. The conditional forecasts for cement consumption are made in three scenarios on exogenous variables: optimistic (GDP growth rate 8%), base (GDP growth rate 5%) and pessimistic (GDP growth rate 4%), assuming that the relative cement price is constant in all scenarios. The results show that the steady state growth rates of cement consumption are 10.3, 7.7 and 7.4 in optimistic, base and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The unconditional forecasts (based on unconditional VAR) are close to conditional ones in base scenario.

Supply chain management is a new issue in managerial systems which sometimes is considered as Logistic & Procurement systems from the scientists point of view. In this paper, dimensions and principles of SCM are described and the focus is on the importance of inventory management in supply chain management specially in distribution channels. We applied decentralized distribution and inventory model in sales &distribution department of Iran khodro's spare parts & after sales service company (ISACO). In order to keep the stability of the inventory level while decreasing the Bullwhip effect in ordering and delivery system, we tested this model in 3 regional offices and 9 authorized deputies of ISACO. The results showed that while deputies maintain content level of safety stock, they were not willing to keep extra inventory. Information trade-offs between different deputies lead to decreasing the Bullwhip effect in the system as a whole.

In this paper we show that Islamic business ethic (IBE) is complement of conventional business ethic (CBG). So the main responsibility here is to review the basic dimensions of IBE. We firstly mention some general notification. Then we indicate the framework (and the methodology) of the paper. Finally , we mention some basic evidences of IBE.

Today, build, operate and transfer contracts (BOT) have importance in the opinion of legal and economic experts. Different countries, specially developing countries, consider these contracts as effective tools for absorption of foreign investments and use of private sector management in infra structural projects. In this article, we have tried to explain the notion, nature, position, implementation stages and legal issues of BOT contracts and investigate the position of Iranian Law.

Two powerful and sometimes controversial current social and economic trends are globalization and the widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The process of globalization and e-commerce create new challenges and opportunities for firms. Many argue that these two trends are closely associated, each driving the other forward. The convergence of two distinct but interconnected is creating powerful new opportunities and challenges for firms. This paper develops and tests a model for examining the relationship between firm globalization and e-commerce adoption. This research investigates the determinants and role of e-commerce in globalization.

The aim of this paper is that through the studying of the different models for measuring organizational diversification, select a suitable model and then, explains the relationship between corporate diversification with rates of return and risks of companies. The different researches about the relationship between corporate diversification and other corporate variables have not reached clear and specific results and in different samples, the results were different. In this paper, diversification has been separated to the two dimensions: related diversification and unrelated diversification, and then the relationship between these dimensions with rates of return and risks have been tested. This paper shows that there is not a significant relationship between different dimensions of diversification with rates of return and risks of the selected companies.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the degree of success of a possible regional trade bloc among selected Asian countries namely India, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Nepal. The emphasis is put on the bilateral trade flows between the members of this bloc including Iran. The main questions which the paper attempts to address are the followings: - Would this trade arrangement be conducive to positive achievements? - What would be the impacts of this possible arrangement on the bilateral trade flows of its members and on the volume of trade of these countries with non member countries of the sample. The theoretical framework of this paper is based on regionalism and for the estimation of the trade effects the Gravity Model using panel data is utilized. The results demonstrate that the formation of such a bloc is capable of enhancing the volume of bilateral trade between its members. Furthermore the formation of this bloc would also increase the volume of trade (exports and imports) of its members with the non member trade partners of the sample.

The Bangkok Agreement (BA) is the Asia's oldests preferential trade agreement between developing countries, and Iran's willingness to join it, has necessitated the evaluation and study of the agreement. Based on the framework of obligations, the agreement requires each new member to provide a list of goods whose preferential tariffs could be granted to other members. In this paper attempts have been made to identify Iran's non-oil exports to Bangkok members which can benefit from tariff preferences. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index has been employed for this purpose, and by using panel data for the period 1376-1382, income, price and substitute elasticities for Iran's exports to Bangkok have been calculated. Furthermore, selected products in each chapter have been determined, and by using the estimated coefficients and preference margin, the results of Iran's accession to this agreement have been analyzed. The results demonstrate that income, price and substitute price elasticities for Bangkok imports from Iran are 0.78, -2.61, and -1.20, respectively. The price elasticity of Bangkok's imports from Iran in chapters 5th, 6th and 15th of customs yearbook are -1.55, -1.45 and -0.66, respectively. Bangkok is much interested in importing items under chapter 5 from Iran, and based on price elasticity of the goods, most preferences can be achieved through this chapter. The estimated coefficients show a postivie link between Iran's accession to BA and the expansion of the country's non-oil exports. By employing the above-mentioned coefficients and the margin of preference on selected items, a 6.5 percent growth in export of the selected chapters could be achieved.

Trade agreement between Iran and Pakistan are estimated in two different scenarios of tariff reduction and by employing SMART Model. The results demonstrate that the gain of Iran from tariff reductions in terms of trade creation and diversion in Pakistan would be considerable in a wide range of industrial, mineral and agricultural products such as plastics and articles thereof, cotton, edible fruits, mineral fuels, edible vegetables, iron and steel, organic chemicals, carpets and other floor coverings. Furthermore, the overall findings show that in terms of total trade flow, the higher average tariff of Iran compared to that of Pakistan leads to the higher trade creation and diversion effects in the market of Iran and not vice versa. In this case, the surplus of trade balance and the tariff revenues would decrease. However, as far as the results for trade creation and trade diversion are concerned, the findings does not necessarily hold for all commodity groups. Another outcome of paper is to the effect that since import of rice constitute more than 84 percent of the total import of Iran from Pakistan, therefore if the tariff of this item remains unchanged, the overall results in terms of trade creation and diversion would become reverse, and consequently the trade balance surplus would increase and the tariff revenues would show minimal negative change.