Assessment of the Capacity of Current Agricultural Water Management in Zarrineh Rud Basin for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Robust Decision Making Technique

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Babania F.; MORID S.; SHOKRI A.

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Paper Information

Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:14 | Issue:5 Page(s): 27-38

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Title

Assessment of the Capacity of Current Agricultural Water Management in Zarrineh Rud Basin for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Robust Decision Making Technique

Author(s)

Babania F. | MORID S. | SHOKRI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate ChangeQ2

Robust Decision MakingQ1

Deep UncertaintyQ1

SWAT ModelQ1

Abstract

In the management of water resources systems, there are various inherent uncertainties which are exacerbated in longer planning horizons. Among these uncertainties, those related to Climate Change and its consequences are among the most challenging and attributed as Deep Uncertainty since there is no clear probabilistic distribution for the outcomes. For such cases, it is crucial to take more robust decisions and maintain their performances during different climatic scenarios. This issue is addressed as the objective of current research in which the concept of “ robustness” is applied for evaluation of Climate Change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, this study used Robust Decision Making (RDM) technique, which was linked to Soil and Water assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the required water and agricultural simulations. The case study of this research was Zarrineh Rud River basin which includes plenty of cultivated lands. The basin is also the main feeding river of Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran. At this stage, the paper evaluated the capacity of the current management of the basin as a Climate Change adaptation strategy. For this, different indicators including; inflows to the lake, change in groundwater storage, actual evapo-transpiration, and crop yield were assessed. The results showed that the current management is not robust and fails in most of the projected climate scenarios. The situation also worsened as the rainfall decreases and temperature increases more than 0. 75 Celsius. This suggests necessity of a new vision for the basin management and evolving strategies, which can be properly evaluated through the developed modeling framework.

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APA: Copy

Babania, F., MORID, S., & SHOKRI, A.. (2019). Assessment of the Capacity of Current Agricultural Water Management in Zarrineh Rud Basin for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Robust Decision Making Technique. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 14(5 ), 27-38. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100211/en

Vancouver: Copy

Babania F., MORID S., SHOKRI A.. Assessment of the Capacity of Current Agricultural Water Management in Zarrineh Rud Basin for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Robust Decision Making Technique. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;14(5 ):27-38. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100211/en

IEEE: Copy

F. Babania, S. MORID, and A. SHOKRI, “Assessment of the Capacity of Current Agricultural Water Management in Zarrineh Rud Basin for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Robust Decision Making Technique,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 14, no. 5 , pp. 27–38, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100211/en

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