PREDICTING THE DAMAGE OF HULL CAR INSURANCE, USING TIME SERIES METHODS (CASE STUDY: PARSIAN INSURANCE COMPANY)

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PAYANDEH NAJAF ABADI AMIR TEIMOUR; SOLTANI RENANI ZAHRA

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Paper Information

Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH) Year:2011 | Volume:25 | Issue:4 (100) Page(s): 87-103

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Information Journal Paper

Title

PREDICTING THE DAMAGE OF HULL CAR INSURANCE, USING TIME SERIES METHODS (CASE STUDY: PARSIAN INSURANCE COMPANY)

Author(s)

PAYANDEH NAJAF ABADI AMIR TEIMOUR | SOLTANI RENANI ZAHRA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

HULL CAR INSURANCEQ2

TIME SERIES PREDICTIONQ3

BOX– JENKINS MODELQ3

WINTERS MODELQ3

MAPEQ3

Abstract

In Iranian insurance market, car insurance has the highest volume in terms of issuance and loss. So, the need for financial decisions and predicting the behavior of this market is imperative for insurers. Time series are powerful statistical methods that use statistical methods based on random processes to modelise and predict the behavior of such variables depend on time. In this paper, damage of HULL CAR INSURANCE (Parsian Insurance Company from March 1385 to July 1389) is considered as a variable, then by using two models time series, i.e. Box- Jenkins and Winters, the behavior of this variable is modelized. Since observations has seasonal trends, SARIMA and Winters multiplicative models are used. MAPE error indicator tools show that Winter’s multiplicative model has more accurate fitting. Finally, by using WINTERS MODEL, damage of HULL CAR INSURANCE for a period of six months is predicted.

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APA: Copy

PAYANDEH NAJAF ABADI, AMIR TEIMOUR, & SOLTANI RENANI, ZAHRA. (2011). PREDICTING THE DAMAGE OF HULL CAR INSURANCE, USING TIME SERIES METHODS (CASE STUDY: PARSIAN INSURANCE COMPANY). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH), 25(4 (100)), 87-103. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100971/en

Vancouver: Copy

PAYANDEH NAJAF ABADI AMIR TEIMOUR, SOLTANI RENANI ZAHRA. PREDICTING THE DAMAGE OF HULL CAR INSURANCE, USING TIME SERIES METHODS (CASE STUDY: PARSIAN INSURANCE COMPANY). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH)[Internet]. 2011;25(4 (100)):87-103. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100971/en

IEEE: Copy

AMIR TEIMOUR PAYANDEH NAJAF ABADI, and ZAHRA SOLTANI RENANI, “PREDICTING THE DAMAGE OF HULL CAR INSURANCE, USING TIME SERIES METHODS (CASE STUDY: PARSIAN INSURANCE COMPANY),” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH), vol. 25, no. 4 (100), pp. 87–103, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100971/en

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