An Analysis of the Land Use Change Scenarios for Registration of Yazd in World Heritage List

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Javaheri Mostafa; Rafieian Mohsen; Motalebzadeh Shiva

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Socio-Cultural Strategy Year:2021 | Volume:10 | Issue:3 Page(s): 657-686

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Information Journal Paper

Title

An Analysis of the Land Use Change Scenarios for Registration of Yazd in World Heritage List

Author(s)

Javaheri Mostafa | Rafieian Mohsen | Motalebzadeh Shiva | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

driving factors of land use changeQ4

foresight land use changeQ4

scenariosQ4

world heritage registrationQ4

YazdQ4

Abstract

Registration of a city in the list of the World Heritage provides an unparalleled opportunity for the development of that city. Parallel with this opportunity, there are also some challenges in the field of land use that, if not thought over properly, can lead to adverse effects and destruction of valuable world heritage. In this regard, the present study tries to futurize the land uses in Yazd through formulating and analyzing the scenarios of land use change and pave the way for their world registration. The research method is analytical based on the scenario technique using the Mick Mac software and wizard scenario. The results show that among the 69 factors identified in eight fields of social, economic, cultural, environmental, spatial / physical, political, accessability, and functional areas, 14 variables can be considered as the most important driving factors of the land use change in the field of world heritage registration of Yazd. Among these factors, the existing capacities of land has the most impact on land use change and after that conservation, rules and regulations, access to services, population, distribution of functions, outreach plans, employment in the service sector, quantitative and qualitative status of tourism services, land value, water resources, security, access to the road network, and participation have had the greatest direct impact. The atmospheres which the impact of these drivers will have on the future of land use in the world heritage area are classified into three scenarios of conservation, development, and decline. The first scenario as the selected one, considering the principles of conservation and suggestions of the superordinate plan and observing the laws and regulations, will improve the other factors and bring a good future for the world heritage registration.

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