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Title

Predicting the Invasion Potential of Non-Native Plants in Iran at Regional and Provincial Scales Using Climate Data

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Abstract

 There are various potential outcomes for a Non-native species introduced to a new area: 1) Unsuccessful in establishing colonies, 2) successful in establishing colonies but not becoming fully established, remaining a casual species, 3) Successful in establishing a population and becoming a naturalized species, and 4) becoming invasive. Predicting the destiny of a Non-native species after introduction is a crucial question. Current methods, such as EICAT (Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa), score species based on scientific documents to deliver a general classification. However, when it comes to decisionmaking, more advanced predictions at a regional scale are necessary. To address this need, we propose the Regional impact classification (RIC) method, which can predict the fate of Non-native species after their introduction into a new area. The RIC method combines EICAT scores with climate suitability coefficients derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to create an impact score ranging from 0 to 1. Regions along the Caspian seashore, specifically Guilan and Mazandaran provinces, show very high-risk (VHR) and high-risk (HR) scores. Generally, areas surrounding the Caspian Sea, including Eastern Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Guilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan, exhibit at least a medium-risk (MR) level of impact risk. Additionally, some areas in the west (Kurdistan and Lorestan provinces), south (Bushehr and Hormozgan provinces), and southeast (Sistan-Baluchestan province) of Iran receive a MR score. The RIC method provides a spatially explicit impact score that can aid in prioritizing the management of invasive nonnative plants at the regional level, where such decisions are commonly made. RIC remains a flexible and adaptable tool that can be further developed according to the demands of decision-makers.

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    APA: Copy

    Oveisi, Mostafa, Bacher, Sven, & Mueller Schaerer, Heinz. (2023). Predicting the Invasion Potential of Non-Native Plants in Iran at Regional and Provincial Scales Using Climate Data. IRANIAN WEED SCIENCE CONGRESS. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/1128221/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    Oveisi Mostafa, Bacher Sven, Mueller Schaerer Heinz. Predicting the Invasion Potential of Non-Native Plants in Iran at Regional and Provincial Scales Using Climate Data. 2023. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/1128221/en

    IEEE: Copy

    Mostafa Oveisi, Sven Bacher, and Heinz Mueller Schaerer, “Predicting the Invasion Potential of Non-Native Plants in Iran at Regional and Provincial Scales Using Climate Data,” presented at the IRANIAN WEED SCIENCE CONGRESS. 2023, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/1128221/en

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    مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
    مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
    مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
    مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
    مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
    مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
    مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
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