Using of the Bayesian Causal Map In Order to Investigate the Effective Factors on Inflation in the Iranian Economy

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NAGHAVI SOMAYYEH; SHAHNOUSHI NASER

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Journal: Journal of Economic Research Year:2015 | Volume:50 | Issue:1 Page(s): 217-252

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Title

Using of the Bayesian Causal Map In Order to Investigate the Effective Factors on Inflation in the Iranian Economy

Author(s)

NAGHAVI SOMAYYEH | SHAHNOUSHI NASER | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

InflationQ2

Bayesian Causal NetworksQ2

Iran EconomyQ2

Abstract

One of the most important objectives of any economic system is to achieve to low and stable Inflation and sustained economic growth. In this study, first, Bayesian causal is indentified effective factors on Inflation and then using Bayesian causal network and Determining prior probabilities and posterior probabilities in different scenarios, it is discussed The impacts of this factors on Inflation in the Iranian economy. Sensitivity analysis show The relationship of Inflation to budget deficit, ratio private credit to gross domestic production, government debt, exchange rate, govement size and interest rate is positive and with economic growth is negative. Then, it is recommended if government budget is independence from oil revenues, there is hope that Central bank independence can be a step towards disInflation in the Iranian economy.

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APA: Copy

NAGHAVI, SOMAYYEH, & SHAHNOUSHI, NASER. (2015). Using of the Bayesian Causal Map In Order to Investigate the Effective Factors on Inflation in the Iranian Economy. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, 50(1 ), 217-252. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/11798/en

Vancouver: Copy

NAGHAVI SOMAYYEH, SHAHNOUSHI NASER. Using of the Bayesian Causal Map In Order to Investigate the Effective Factors on Inflation in the Iranian Economy. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI[Internet]. 2015;50(1 ):217-252. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/11798/en

IEEE: Copy

SOMAYYEH NAGHAVI, and NASER SHAHNOUSHI, “Using of the Bayesian Causal Map In Order to Investigate the Effective Factors on Inflation in the Iranian Economy,” TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, vol. 50, no. 1 , pp. 217–252, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/11798/en

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