Forecasting and investigating the future of climate change in Tehran city

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yoosefi Mohammad Reza; khaledi shahriar; asadian farideh

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Journal: Journal of Future Cities Vision Year:2024 | Volume:5 | Issue:1 Page(s): 179-197

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Forecasting and investigating the future of climate change in Tehran city

Author(s)

yoosefi Mohammad Reza | khaledi shahriar | asadian farideh | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Temperature

precipitation

LARS model

general atmosphere circulation

mann-Kendall

Tehran city.

Abstract

This article was written with the aim of predicting the process of climate change in Tehran. In this article, the status of rainfall and Temperature (minimum and maximum) of Tehran was reviewed at geophysical, Shemiranat and Mehrabad synoptic stations during the 1992 to 2018 period and was used to identify the existence of leaps and revelations of the years of mutation. It was also used to predict climate elements in Tehran using CMIP5 data and LARS model for three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. Results of the Time Time and Rainfall Series Trends of the Three Stations Investigated in Tehran, using my Kendall process analysis test, showed that in the case of none of the climatic factors in the three stations under investigation, a significant change in P_Value = confidence level = 0.05 did not occur. But many annual mutations and fluctuations were observed in the Temperature and rainfall series. Also, the results of the climatic parameters of the minimum, maximum and precipitation Temperature parameters showed that the minimum Temperature and maximum by 2050 compared to the base period (1992 to 2018) in all three carbon dioxide emission lines RCP2.6 , RCP4.5, RCP8.5, will be significantly increased in all three studies. But rainfall will be significantly reduced by 1.7 mm per month compared to the base period of 1992 to 2018 in all three carbon dioxide emissions in all three stations

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