INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURE SHOCK ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN IRAN: ARDL APPROACH

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HAGHIGHAT JAFAR; MOHARAM JOUDI NAZILA

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Journal: Journal of Economic Modelling Year:2017 | Volume:10 | Issue:4 (36) Page(s): 141-166

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Title

INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURE SHOCK ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN IRAN: ARDL APPROACH

Author(s)

HAGHIGHAT JAFAR | MOHARAM JOUDI NAZILA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FISCAL POLICYQ2

GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURE SHOCKSQ1

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTQ2

AUTO-REGRESSIVE WITH DISTRIBUTED LAGS (ARDL)Q2

Abstract

The aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure shock is captured by the model residuals. Then the model of effective factors on GDP is estimated from 1971 to 2014. In estimating the models, autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been used. According to the results, the effect of governmental current expenditure on GDP is not significant. But lagged government expenditure shock has a positive and significant impact on GDP. Error correction term is negative and significant, and indicates that when a shock occurs, 12 percent of short term imbalance is adjusted each period, to reach the long term equilibrium. It is purposed to government not to increase own expenditure, since this can cause an inverse relationship between government expenditure and GDP and it reduces economic growth.

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APA: Copy

HAGHIGHAT, JAFAR, & MOHARAM JOUDI, NAZILA. (2017). INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURE SHOCK ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN IRAN: ARDL APPROACH. ECONOMIC MODELLING, 10(4 (36)), 141-166. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/176160/en

Vancouver: Copy

HAGHIGHAT JAFAR, MOHARAM JOUDI NAZILA. INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURE SHOCK ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN IRAN: ARDL APPROACH. ECONOMIC MODELLING[Internet]. 2017;10(4 (36)):141-166. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/176160/en

IEEE: Copy

JAFAR HAGHIGHAT, and NAZILA MOHARAM JOUDI, “INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURE SHOCK ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN IRAN: ARDL APPROACH,” ECONOMIC MODELLING, vol. 10, no. 4 (36), pp. 141–166, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/176160/en

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