Predicting locational trend of land use changes using CA-Markov model (Case study: Safarod Ramsar watershed)

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SALEHI N.; EKHTESASI M.R.; TALEBI A.

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Paper Information

Journal: Journal of RS and GIS for Natural Resources Year:2019 | Volume:10 | Issue:1 (34) Page(s): 106-120

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Title

Predicting locational trend of land use changes using CA-Markov model (Case study: Safarod Ramsar watershed)

Author(s)

SALEHI N. | EKHTESASI M.R. | TALEBI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Land Use ChangeQ1

Change detectionQ1

Markov modelQ1

Satellite ImagesQ1

Safarood WatershedQ1

Abstract

Predicting Land Use Changes using satellite imagery is now a useful tool for helping planners in complex situations. The purpose of this study was to detect and predict Land Use Changes during the 28-year period (1986-2014) by CAMarkov model in the Safarood-Ramsar watershed of Mazandaran province. In this research, land use and NDVI maps were prepared using Landsat TM (1986), ETM+ (2000) and OLI (2014) Satellite Images. The accuracy of the CA-Markov model was estimated using the Kappa index of 87%. In order to calibrate the CA-Markov model, the land use map was prepared in 2014, and the Kappa coefficient of the mapping from modeling and user base map (2014) was 82%. The results showed that during the period between 1986 and 2014, the area of forest lands decreased by 10. 26% and the total area of residential areas increased by 3. 27%. The land use map for the years 2021 and 2028 was predicted by the CA-Markov model. The results showed that during the period 2014-2028, forested lands and rangelands decreased by 4. 92% and 1. 7%, respectively. Residential areas will increase by 8. 04% and the agricultural land will change slightly, indicating the changes in land use to residential land.

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APA: Copy

SALEHI, N., EKHTESASI, M.R., & TALEBI, A.. (2019). Predicting locational trend of land use changes using CA-Markov model (Case study: Safarod Ramsar watershed). JOURNAL OF RS AND GIS FOR NATURAL RESOURCES (JOURNAL OF APPLIED RS AND GIS TECHNIQUES IN NATURAL RESOURCE SCIENCE), 10(1 (34) ), 106-120. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/189451/en

Vancouver: Copy

SALEHI N., EKHTESASI M.R., TALEBI A.. Predicting locational trend of land use changes using CA-Markov model (Case study: Safarod Ramsar watershed). JOURNAL OF RS AND GIS FOR NATURAL RESOURCES (JOURNAL OF APPLIED RS AND GIS TECHNIQUES IN NATURAL RESOURCE SCIENCE)[Internet]. 2019;10(1 (34) ):106-120. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/189451/en

IEEE: Copy

N. SALEHI, M.R. EKHTESASI, and A. TALEBI, “Predicting locational trend of land use changes using CA-Markov model (Case study: Safarod Ramsar watershed),” JOURNAL OF RS AND GIS FOR NATURAL RESOURCES (JOURNAL OF APPLIED RS AND GIS TECHNIQUES IN NATURAL RESOURCE SCIENCE), vol. 10, no. 1 (34) , pp. 106–120, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/189451/en

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