The Effect of Macroeconomic Stability Indices Shocks on “ TEPIX” by Bayesian VAR Model Approach

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Azam Rajabian Mohammad; SABAHI AHMAD; LOTFALIPOUR MOHAMMAD REZA; Behnameh Mahdi

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Journal: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:9 | Issue:33 Page(s): 79-90

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Title

The Effect of Macroeconomic Stability Indices Shocks on “ TEPIX” by Bayesian VAR Model Approach

Author(s)

Azam Rajabian Mohammad | SABAHI AHMAD | LOTFALIPOUR MOHAMMAD REZA | Behnameh Mahdi | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Macroeconomic StabilityQ1

TEPIXQ2

Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive (BVAR)Q1

Abstract

Sustainability of macroeconomics is one of the most important economic issues of the country in recent years. Stable economies are more resilient and less agitated while facing destructive shocks. In this paper, the impact of macroeconomic sustainability indices on the total price index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TEPIX) during the period of 2000-2016was investigated. The used methodology is Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive (BVAR) model. All Bayesian models consist of three basic components of the prior density function, the function of the righting reflex and the function of the posterior density, and various results can be obtained depending on which type of function is used in the model. The macroeconomic sustainability indicators include: the ratio of budget deficit to GDP, the misery indicator, and the ratio of the trade deficit to GDP. Finally, using the instantaneous response function, the impacts of macroeconomic sustainability indicators on the total stock price index is estimated. The results show that the budget deficit of the government has a positive effect on the total stock price index. This positive effect has been declining after three periods and loses its effect after 8 periods. The impact of misery indicator on the total stock price index is also positive which its effect decreases and vanishes after the second and eighth periods, respectively. The trade balance impact has a negligible initial effect on the total stock price index, which has been declining after the third period despite of the first increase until the second period.

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APA: Copy

Azam Rajabian, Mohammad, SABAHI, AHMAD, LOTFALIPOUR, MOHAMMAD REZA, & Behnameh, Mahdi. (2019). The Effect of Macroeconomic Stability Indices Shocks on “ TEPIX” by Bayesian VAR Model Approach. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, 9(33 ), 79-90. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/192135/en

Vancouver: Copy

Azam Rajabian Mohammad, SABAHI AHMAD, LOTFALIPOUR MOHAMMAD REZA, Behnameh Mahdi. The Effect of Macroeconomic Stability Indices Shocks on “ TEPIX” by Bayesian VAR Model Approach. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;9(33 ):79-90. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/192135/en

IEEE: Copy

Mohammad Azam Rajabian, AHMAD SABAHI, MOHAMMAD REZA LOTFALIPOUR, and Mahdi Behnameh, “The Effect of Macroeconomic Stability Indices Shocks on “ TEPIX” by Bayesian VAR Model Approach,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, vol. 9, no. 33 , pp. 79–90, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/192135/en

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