PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF THE NEXT LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN THE ZAGROS FOLDED-THRUST BELT

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MOSTAFAEI HAMID REZA; KORDNOORI SHAGHAYEGH

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Journal: JOURNAL OF THE EARTH Year:2010 | Volume:5 | Issue:3 Page(s): 1-6

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Title

PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF THE NEXT LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN THE ZAGROS FOLDED-THRUST BELT

Author(s)

MOSTAFAEI HAMID REZA | KORDNOORI SHAGHAYEGH | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

PROBABILISTIC PREDICTIONQ3

RENEWAL MODELQ3

LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTIONQ3

GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONQ3

RECURRENCE TIMEQ3

ZAGROS BELTQ3

Abstract

Probabilistic methods are helpful for characterizing earthquake prediction. The seismic process can be modeled as a renewal process using a list of strong earthquakes (M³6.5) from 1900 until now which occurred in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Two RENEWAL MODELs have been used. The model parameters have been specified by the method of moments and the method of maximum likelihood.We conclude that the gamma model gives the better result than the lognormal model. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time can be calculated for each model.Also by maximizing the conditional probability for each model, we estimated approximately the RECURRENCE TIME of the next strong earthquake in this region. The next earthquake with M³6.5 may occur before 2012.577±5.333 (yrs) and 2012.o46±5.25 (yrs) by using the Gamma model and Lognormal Model, respectively.

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APA: Copy

MOSTAFAEI, HAMID REZA, & KORDNOORI, SHAGHAYEGH. (2010). PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF THE NEXT LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN THE ZAGROS FOLDED-THRUST BELT. JOURNAL OF THE EARTH, 5(3), 1-6. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/192987/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOSTAFAEI HAMID REZA, KORDNOORI SHAGHAYEGH. PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF THE NEXT LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN THE ZAGROS FOLDED-THRUST BELT. JOURNAL OF THE EARTH[Internet]. 2010;5(3):1-6. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/192987/en

IEEE: Copy

HAMID REZA MOSTAFAEI, and SHAGHAYEGH KORDNOORI, “PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF THE NEXT LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN THE ZAGROS FOLDED-THRUST BELT,” JOURNAL OF THE EARTH, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 1–6, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/192987/en

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