MODEL FORECASTS FOR INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FUTURES APPROACH AND GRAY MARKOV METHOD

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Yavarzadeh mohammad reza; HAJIANI EBRAHIM; NAZMI AMIR

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Journal: Journal of Management Future Research Year:2017 | Volume:28 | Issue:108 Page(s): 1-14

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Title

MODEL FORECASTS FOR INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FUTURES APPROACH AND GRAY MARKOV METHOD

Author(s)

Yavarzadeh mohammad reza | HAJIANI EBRAHIM | NAZMI AMIR | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

INFLATION RATEQ2

ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE UNCERTAINTYQ1

GARY MARKOV FORECASTQ1

Abstract

Accurate forecasts with zero error, regardless of the considered area and topics, are very difficult and almost impossible especially in forecasting process, in a very complex environment and through the thick cloud of uncertainties and several driving forces who affected the environment, and data and information used in forecasting have ambiguous and grey characteristics.The studies also confirmed that some international institutes have provided more accurate forecasts of macroeconomic variables of Islamic Republic of Iran. In the present study which was conducted by quantitative study, trying by using real data, secondary analysis and documents methods the error of forecasting four international institutes such as The Business Monitor, The Economy Watch, The International Monetary Fund and The World Bank in the time span of 20 years (1993-2013) has been calculated. And also by using the Gary Markov Method and combined methods presented a new model which has based on statistical analysis it is proven that this model has less deviation and forecast error than the separated forecasts of each mentioned international institute. Finally, it suggests a native and reliable model for the functional and operational use in providing more accurate forecast of Iran macroeconomic variables (economic growth rate and Iran's INFLATION RATE) by two national institutes (Iran Statistical Center and IRI Central Bank).

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ارزیابی روشهای پیش بینی ترکیبی: با رویکردهای شبکه های عصبی - کلاسیک در حوزه اقتصاد

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APA: Copy

Yavarzadeh, mohammad reza, HAJIANI, EBRAHIM, & NAZMI, AMIR. (2017). MODEL FORECASTS FOR INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FUTURES APPROACH AND GRAY MARKOV METHOD. JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT FUTURES RESEARCH(JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH), 28(108), 1-14. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/204158/en

Vancouver: Copy

Yavarzadeh mohammad reza, HAJIANI EBRAHIM, NAZMI AMIR. MODEL FORECASTS FOR INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FUTURES APPROACH AND GRAY MARKOV METHOD. JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT FUTURES RESEARCH(JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH)[Internet]. 2017;28(108):1-14. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/204158/en

IEEE: Copy

mohammad reza Yavarzadeh, EBRAHIM HAJIANI, and AMIR NAZMI, “MODEL FORECASTS FOR INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FUTURES APPROACH AND GRAY MARKOV METHOD,” JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT FUTURES RESEARCH(JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH), vol. 28, no. 108, pp. 1–14, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/204158/en

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