EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPORT DEMAND OF MENA MEMBER COUNTRIES

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BEHRAD AMIN MEHDI; ZAMANIAN GHOLAMREZA

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Journal: Journal of economics and regional development Year:2014 | Volume:21 | Issue:8 Page(s): 227-255

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Title

EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPORT DEMAND OF MENA MEMBER COUNTRIES

Author(s)

BEHRAD AMIN MEHDI | ZAMANIAN GHOLAMREZA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTYQ2

EGARCHQ2

IMPORTSQ2

PANEL DATAQ2

Abstract

The exchange rate as a key variable in economic policies have been considered. Moreover, the volatility and uncertainty of exchange rates and their effects on international trade in terms of policy is extremely important. Although most trade models argue that exchange rate volatility increases the uncertainty and risk and therefore reduce trade flows, including IMPORTS, however, some studies suggests the opposite. This study investigates the impact of real EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY on import demand of member countries of the MENA. The period of study is during 1980-2012. The EGARCH model is used to generate the log of GARCH variance series and the PANEL DATA with random effects method was used to estimation of the model. The variable of real EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY imposes a negative impact on real import in the long run. In the long run, a rise in real EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY can improve the country’s trade balance by substantially lowering import demand, but can harm industrial production at the same time. Therefore, stabilization of real effective exchange rate via major nominal exchange rates may deem necessary.

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APA: Copy

BEHRAD AMIN, MEHDI, & ZAMANIAN, GHOLAMREZA. (2014). EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPORT DEMAND OF MENA MEMBER COUNTRIES. ECONOMICS AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT (KNOWLEDGE AND DEVELOPMENT), 21(8), 227-255. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/212875/en

Vancouver: Copy

BEHRAD AMIN MEHDI, ZAMANIAN GHOLAMREZA. EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPORT DEMAND OF MENA MEMBER COUNTRIES. ECONOMICS AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT (KNOWLEDGE AND DEVELOPMENT)[Internet]. 2014;21(8):227-255. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/212875/en

IEEE: Copy

MEHDI BEHRAD AMIN, and GHOLAMREZA ZAMANIAN, “EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPORT DEMAND OF MENA MEMBER COUNTRIES,” ECONOMICS AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT (KNOWLEDGE AND DEVELOPMENT), vol. 21, no. 8, pp. 227–255, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/212875/en

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