SELECTING THE APPROPRIATE SCENARIO FOR FORECASTING ENERGY DEMANDS OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS IN IRAN USING TWO METAHEURISTIC ALGORITHMS

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NAZARI HESAM; KAZEMI ALIYEH; HASHEMI MOHAMMAD HOSEIN

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Journal: Interdisciplinary Journal of Management Studies Year:2016 | Volume:9 | Issue:1 Page(s): 101-123

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Title

SELECTING THE APPROPRIATE SCENARIO FOR FORECASTING ENERGY DEMANDS OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS IN IRAN USING TWO METAHEURISTIC ALGORITHMS

Author(s)

NAZARI HESAM | KAZEMI ALIYEH | HASHEMI MOHAMMAD HOSEIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ENERGY DEMANDQ2

FORECASTINGQ2

GENETIC ALGORITHMQ2

PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMQ2

RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORSQ2

Abstract

This study focuses on the FORECASTING of ENERGY DEMANDs of RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS using linear and exponential functions. The coefficients were obtained from genetic and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms. Totally, 72 different scenarios with various inputs were investigated. Consumption data in respect of RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS in Iran were collected from the annual reports of the central bank, Ministry of Energy and the Petroleum Ministry of Iran (2010). The data from 1967 to 2010 were considered for the case of this study. The available data were used partly to obtain the optimal, or near optimal values of the coefficient parameters (1967–2006) and for testing the models (2007–2010). Results show that the PSO ENERGY DEMAND estimation exponential model with inputs, including value added of all economic sectors, value of made buildings, population, and price indices of electrical and fuel appliances using the mean absolute percentage error on tests data were 1.97%, was considered the most suitable model. Finally, basing on the best scenario, the ENERGY DEMAND of RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS is estimated at 1718 mega barrels of oil equivalent up to the year 2032.

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APA: Copy

NAZARI, HESAM, KAZEMI, ALIYEH, & HASHEMI, MOHAMMAD HOSEIN. (2016). SELECTING THE APPROPRIATE SCENARIO FOR FORECASTING ENERGY DEMANDS OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS IN IRAN USING TWO METAHEURISTIC ALGORITHMS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES, 9(1), 101-123. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/240921/en

Vancouver: Copy

NAZARI HESAM, KAZEMI ALIYEH, HASHEMI MOHAMMAD HOSEIN. SELECTING THE APPROPRIATE SCENARIO FOR FORECASTING ENERGY DEMANDS OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS IN IRAN USING TWO METAHEURISTIC ALGORITHMS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES[Internet]. 2016;9(1):101-123. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/240921/en

IEEE: Copy

HESAM NAZARI, ALIYEH KAZEMI, and MOHAMMAD HOSEIN HASHEMI, “SELECTING THE APPROPRIATE SCENARIO FOR FORECASTING ENERGY DEMANDS OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS IN IRAN USING TWO METAHEURISTIC ALGORITHMS,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 101–123, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/240921/en

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