PREDICTION OF TRAUMA-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES OF PEDESTRIANS OF FARS PROVINCE, IRAN

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AKBARI MARYAM; TABRIZI REZA; HEYDARI SEYED TAGHI; SEKHAVATI EGHBAL; MOOSAZADEH MAHMOOD; BAGHERI LANKARANI KAMRAN

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Journal: ELECTRONIC PHYSICIAN Year:2015 | Volume:7 | Issue:5 Page(s): 1247-1254

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Title

PREDICTION OF TRAUMA-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES OF PEDESTRIANS OF FARS PROVINCE, IRAN

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Keywords

MODELING DEATH RATE

PEDESTRIANS

FARS PROVINCE

Abstract

Introduction: PEDESTRIANS are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving PEDESTRIANS, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period.Methods: We analyzed all fatalities among PEDESTRIANS caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in FARS PROVINCE in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among PEDESTRIANS. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013).Results: During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were PEDESTRIANS. The death rate for male PEDESTRIANS in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%.Conclusion: Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among PEDESTRIANS. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the PEDESTRIANS’ deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.

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APA: Copy

AKBARI, MARYAM, TABRIZI, REZA, HEYDARI, SEYED TAGHI, SEKHAVATI, EGHBAL, MOOSAZADEH, MAHMOOD, & BAGHERI LANKARANI, KAMRAN. (2015). PREDICTION OF TRAUMA-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES OF PEDESTRIANS OF FARS PROVINCE, IRAN. ELECTRONIC PHYSICIAN, 7(5), 1247-1254. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/345356/en

Vancouver: Copy

AKBARI MARYAM, TABRIZI REZA, HEYDARI SEYED TAGHI, SEKHAVATI EGHBAL, MOOSAZADEH MAHMOOD, BAGHERI LANKARANI KAMRAN. PREDICTION OF TRAUMA-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES OF PEDESTRIANS OF FARS PROVINCE, IRAN. ELECTRONIC PHYSICIAN[Internet]. 2015;7(5):1247-1254. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/345356/en

IEEE: Copy

MARYAM AKBARI, REZA TABRIZI, SEYED TAGHI HEYDARI, EGHBAL SEKHAVATI, MAHMOOD MOOSAZADEH, and KAMRAN BAGHERI LANKARANI, “PREDICTION OF TRAUMA-SPECIFIC DEATH RATES OF PEDESTRIANS OF FARS PROVINCE, IRAN,” ELECTRONIC PHYSICIAN, vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 1247–1254, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/345356/en

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