Economic Appraisal of Solar Energy Projects under Uncertainty using a Fuzzy Real OptionApproach(Case Study: A 2MW Photovoltaic Plant in the South of Isfahan)

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Mashhadizadeh Mohammad; DASTGIR MOHSEN; SALAHSHOUR SOHEIL

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Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2020 | Volume:16 | Issue:65 Page(s): 221-263

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Economic Appraisal of Solar Energy Projects under Uncertainty using a Fuzzy Real OptionApproach(Case Study: A 2MW Photovoltaic Plant in the South of Isfahan)

Author(s)

Mashhadizadeh Mohammad | DASTGIR MOHSEN | SALAHSHOUR SOHEIL | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Photovoltaic Solar PlantQ1

UncertaintyQ2

Real OptionQ1

Fuzzy LogicQ2

Binomial latticeQ1

Abstract

Investment in renewable energies especially solar energies encounters numerous uncertainties considering the increased dynamism in economic and financial conditions. It is thus important to use modern methods of economic appraisal for such investments. Our study provides a framework for use of the Real Option theory for economic appraisal of a 2MW photovoltaic plant in Isfahan province (as a case study) in comparison with traditional methods. We first distribute self-made questionnaires to a sample of 36 experts, to test the impact of different options on project value with the help of statistical methods. We used Cronbach's alpha coefficient to test the validity of our 9 item questionnaire. Our results indicated a significant relationship between the use of Real Option and increased value of investment in this plant considering expansion, termination and deferral options. We compared the results of our options between use of traditional methods and Real Option approach with the help of Fuzzy Binomial lattice. We observed that the fuzzy Real Option approach leads to increased value of investment and offers greater flexibility than traditional methods.

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APA: Copy

Mashhadizadeh, Mohammad, DASTGIR, MOHSEN, & SALAHSHOUR, SOHEIL. (2020). Economic Appraisal of Solar Energy Projects under Uncertainty using a Fuzzy Real OptionApproach(Case Study: A 2MW Photovoltaic Plant in the South of Isfahan). ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, 16(65 ), 221-263. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/370436/en

Vancouver: Copy

Mashhadizadeh Mohammad, DASTGIR MOHSEN, SALAHSHOUR SOHEIL. Economic Appraisal of Solar Energy Projects under Uncertainty using a Fuzzy Real OptionApproach(Case Study: A 2MW Photovoltaic Plant in the South of Isfahan). ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW[Internet]. 2020;16(65 ):221-263. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/370436/en

IEEE: Copy

Mohammad Mashhadizadeh, MOHSEN DASTGIR, and SOHEIL SALAHSHOUR, “Economic Appraisal of Solar Energy Projects under Uncertainty using a Fuzzy Real OptionApproach(Case Study: A 2MW Photovoltaic Plant in the South of Isfahan),” ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, vol. 16, no. 65 , pp. 221–263, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/370436/en

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