Forcasting Electricity Losses in Transmission and Distribution Grids: System Dynamics Approach Compared to Econometric Method

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

MONJAZEB MOHAMMADREZA; Rezaei Movahed Bita

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:5 | Issue:16 Page(s): 151-182

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

531

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

Forcasting Electricity Losses in Transmission and Distribution Grids: System Dynamics Approach Compared to Econometric Method

Author(s)

MONJAZEB MOHAMMADREZA | Rezaei Movahed Bita | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Power supply

power demand

system dynamics

energy gap

structural model

RSME coefficient

Abstract

In this research, the factors affecting on electricity gap were examined in the electricity industry in Iran using the system dynamics approach compared to the econometric method. In the framework of the electricity gap prediction model, simulation of energy demand were investigated as well as its supply and effective factors. Analysis of the problems with these systems was very complicated because it is a simulated model based on many variables, relationships, and delays between these variables. In this study, the electricity gap was analyzed in light of the supply and demand of energy and considering the market equilibrium price, and the gap value was investigated using a dynamic system model. Also, using a regression analysis and using econometric methods (ARMA and ARIMA modeling), the gap was estimated. The data were used for the years since 1383 to 1393, which was adapted from Iran Energy Balance Sheet. Simulation for a 25-year period for dynamic systems and a 35-year period for a structural model was considered. In these study, the result was that the RMSE criterio for the structural model was 0. 015 and for the dynamic model 0. 057, and showed that estimating the structural model is more accurate than simulation by dynamic systems. Regarding the results, dynamic modeling was with more error for data estimation and was more suitable for showing the relationship between variables (causal and causal relationships) as well as the effect of each variable on another. Therefore, in order to more accurately estimation the data, structural modeling is more appropriate with regard to the information obtained.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

MONJAZEB, MOHAMMADREZA, & Rezaei Movahed, Bita. (2019). Forcasting Electricity Losses in Transmission and Distribution Grids: System Dynamics Approach Compared to Econometric Method. JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH, 5(16 ), 151-182. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/372249/en

Vancouver: Copy

MONJAZEB MOHAMMADREZA, Rezaei Movahed Bita. Forcasting Electricity Losses in Transmission and Distribution Grids: System Dynamics Approach Compared to Econometric Method. JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;5(16 ):151-182. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/372249/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMMADREZA MONJAZEB, and Bita Rezaei Movahed, “Forcasting Electricity Losses in Transmission and Distribution Grids: System Dynamics Approach Compared to Econometric Method,” JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH, vol. 5, no. 16 , pp. 151–182, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/372249/en

Related Journal Papers