Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers of Change in Regional Land Use Planning based on Foresight Approach in Gorgan Township

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SEDIGHI ELHAM; SALMANMAHINI ABDOLRASSOUL; MIRKARIMI SEYED HAMED; DALIRI HASSAN; Fath Brian

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Journal: TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING Year:2020 | Volume:11 | Issue:2 Page(s): 205-233

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Title

Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers of Change in Regional Land Use Planning based on Foresight Approach in Gorgan Township

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Participatory planningQ1

ExpertsQ1

Decision-MakersQ2

Abstract

Foresight analysis in land-use planning lets decision makers overcome complexity and reduce uncertainty through a focus on key drivers. This study attempts to identify the most important drivers of change in land use/cover planning in Gorgan Township with the participation of managers and academic Experts towards a desired future. The approach is normative and the required data were obtained through investigation of scientific literature and land-use planning documents of Golestan Province. Interviews and meetings with Experts also inform the process. Following a literature review, 77 effective factors on the future of land use/cover in the Province were identified. Among these, 22 representative factors were selected according to expert opinions. Two groups, totaling 70 people, consisting of managers of organizations in Golestan Province with links to land use planning and academic Experts were asked to answer an online or in-person questionnaire of the effective factors. The structural analysis and cross-impact matrix were applied to the data. According to the result, the factors “ Imperative policies” , “ Technology” , “ Governmental Services” and “ Transportation and energy infrastructure” are the key drivers of change in land use/cover and affect the implementation of land-use planning in Gorgan Township. Both groups approved the "Imperative policies" as the most significant key driver which can affect other factors.

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APA: Copy

SEDIGHI, ELHAM, SALMANMAHINI, ABDOLRASSOUL, MIRKARIMI, SEYED HAMED, DALIRI, HASSAN, & Fath, Brian. (2020). Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers of Change in Regional Land Use Planning based on Foresight Approach in Gorgan Township. TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING, 11(2 ), 205-233. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/376969/en

Vancouver: Copy

SEDIGHI ELHAM, SALMANMAHINI ABDOLRASSOUL, MIRKARIMI SEYED HAMED, DALIRI HASSAN, Fath Brian. Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers of Change in Regional Land Use Planning based on Foresight Approach in Gorgan Township. TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING[Internet]. 2020;11(2 ):205-233. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/376969/en

IEEE: Copy

ELHAM SEDIGHI, ABDOLRASSOUL SALMANMAHINI, SEYED HAMED MIRKARIMI, HASSAN DALIRI, and Brian Fath, “Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers of Change in Regional Land Use Planning based on Foresight Approach in Gorgan Township,” TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING, vol. 11, no. 2 , pp. 205–233, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/376969/en

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