Iran's Future Climate Conditions and Hazard in Climate Research

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

KARIMI MOSTAFA; Kaki ُSir Seyfollah; RAFATI SOMAYEH

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards Year:2018 | Volume:5 | Issue:3 Page(s): 1-22

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

1,306

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

Iran's Future Climate Conditions and Hazard in Climate Research

Author(s)

KARIMI MOSTAFA | Kaki ُSir Seyfollah | RAFATI SOMAYEH | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate ChangeQ1

Climatic hazardsQ2

Statistical DownscalingQ1

General Circulation ModelsQ2

IranQ2

Abstract

Global temperatures have increased in the past 100 years by an average of 0. 74° C (IPCC, 2013), with minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximum temperatures and winter temperatures increasing faster than summer temperatures (IPCC, 2013). Total annual rainfall tends to increase at the higher latitudes and near the equator, while rainfall in the sub-tropics is likely to decline and become more variable (Asseng et al., 2016). Considering probability of occurrence Climate Change and its hazardous impacts, it seems essential to clarify future climate. General Circulation Models is widely used to assess future climate and its probable changes. Although the outputs of these models are not appropriate for small-scale regions because of its coarse resolution. Thus, statistical or dynamical techniques are used to downscaling the outputs of these models using observed data in weather stations. Despite the fact that frequent researches has done in relation with climate and Climate Change, but it is unclear yet future climate, especially Climate Change, in Iran. The goal of this study was to present the results of Climate Change predictions which has been done so far in Iran, in order to help prospective studies in this field. This step can be important to consider new questions and challenges. In this study, we assessed future Climate Change in Iran using results of Statistical Downscaling studies of atmospheric-oceanic General Circulation Model’ s outputs. To do this, studies on prediction of precipitation and temperature parameters in Iran by different emission scenarios, atmospheric-oceanic General Circulation Model’ s outputs and Statistical Downscaling techniques were gathered. Then a comprehensive view about Iranchr('39')s future climate and specifically the Climate Changes presented by descriptive-content based analysis and comparison of their results. Used downscaling techniques in these researches were included: LARS-WG, SDSM, ASD, Clim-Gen and used General Circulation Models were: HADCM3, BCM2, IPCM4, MIHR, CGCM3, CCSM4 and finally used emission scenarios were A1B, A1, A2, B1, B2, RCP4. 5. Based on climatically geographical differences in Iran, the results discussed separately in six different regions across Iran. The results of various regions are different because of usage of different models and different climatological and geographical conditions. These models simulate temperature more accurate than precipitation, because of more variability and temporal discontinuity of the precipitation relative to temperature. Assessment of results in 30-year periods from 2011 to 2099 showed that in North West of Iran (Ardebil, Azarbayejan-Sharqi and Azarbayejan-Qarbi provinces), precipitation will be decreasing, decreasing-oscillating, decreasing-transitional and temperature will be increasing. Decreasing-transitional trend, in other words decrease precipitation in cold seasons and increase of it in warm seasons, lead to a decrease in the snow occurrence and an increase in the rainfall occurrence. Thus, it can affect the frequency of floods occurrence. In west and southwest region of Iran precipitation has been predicted to have different changes in various sections of it. It will be decreasing-oscillating in Kermanshah and Kordestan provinces and oscillating in Hamedan province. Precipitation will increase in Lorestan and finally it expected to decrease in Khoozestan, Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari, and Ilam. However Temperature will rise across this region. In south and south east region of Iran (Fars, Hormozgan, Kerman and sistan-va-Baloochestan provinces), precipitation will be decreasing, decreasing-oscillating, oscillating and increasing-oscillating. Also in this region, temperature expected to increase similar to other regions. In east and north east of Iran (Khorasan Shomali, Khorasan Razavi and Khorasan Jonobi provinces), temperature predicted to be increasing-oscillating, that it is different with other regions. Changes in precipitation will be oscillating and decreasing-oscillating. In the northern coasts of Iran (Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan provinces), precipitation changes will be decreasing and increasing-oscillating and temperature changes expected to be increasing and increasing-oscillating. Thus, it expected to increase heat wave, drought, and aridness condition as the results of these changes. Precipitation changes in south of Alborz region and center of Iran (Semnan, Tehran, Qazvin, Markazi, Esfahan and Yazd provinces), will be decreasing, oscillating, increasing-oscillating. Also temperature will be increasing in this region. Considering the decreasing trend of precipitation and the increasing trend of temperature in the most of Iran, it is probable to increase the occurrence of climatic and environmental hazards such as flood, drought and heat waves in the future. These events can have serious effects on water resources, agriculture and tourism, especially in regions such as Iran where have sensitive environment.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

KARIMI, MOSTAFA, Kaki ُSir, Seyfollah, & RAFATI, SOMAYEH. (2018). Iran's Future Climate Conditions and Hazard in Climate Research. JOURNAL OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARTS, 5(3 ), 1-22. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/381121/en

Vancouver: Copy

KARIMI MOSTAFA, Kaki ُSir Seyfollah, RAFATI SOMAYEH. Iran's Future Climate Conditions and Hazard in Climate Research. JOURNAL OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARTS[Internet]. 2018;5(3 ):1-22. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/381121/en

IEEE: Copy

MOSTAFA KARIMI, Seyfollah Kaki ُSir, and SOMAYEH RAFATI, “Iran's Future Climate Conditions and Hazard in Climate Research,” JOURNAL OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARTS, vol. 5, no. 3 , pp. 1–22, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/381121/en

Related Journal Papers