Comparing the Effects of Inflation and Unemployment on Social Security in Iran

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NAGHDI YAZDAN; KAGHAZIAN SOHEILA; LASHKARIZADEH MARYAM

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Journal: Quarterly of Order & Security Guards Year:2020 | Volume:13 | Issue:3 (51) Page(s): 1-26

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Comparing the Effects of Inflation and Unemployment on Social Security in Iran

Author(s)

NAGHDI YAZDAN | KAGHAZIAN SOHEILA | LASHKARIZADEH MARYAM | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

InflationQ2

UnemploymentQ2

CrimeQ2

Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)Q1

Social SecurityQ1

Abstract

Introduction: Incorrect economic policies can create a variety of Crimes and endanger Social Security by creating income inequalities and social gaps. The purpose of this paper is to examine the economic factors affecting security by focusing on the components of Inflation and Unemployment. Method: This is a quantitative research. Also, the statistical population of this study will be Iranian economy. This paper presents an empirical model based on economic theories and the use of time series data during 1994-2018 and applying the ARDL model to compare the effects of Inflation and Unemployment on Social Security in Iran. In this study Crime variable was used as indicator of lack of Social Security. Finding: According to the estimated coefficients of Inflation rate in the short run with a coefficient of 0. 16 has a positive and significant effect on Crime rate. Also, the short-term Unemployment rate variable with a significant coefficient of 0. 08 can affect Social Security. In the long run, Inflation rates with a significant coefficient of 2. 24 and Unemployment rates with a significant coefficient of 0. 18 influence Crime rates as a result of Social Security. Conclusion: it can be argued that Social Security has economic roots. According to the results of this study, Inflation and Unemployment in the short and long term have a positive and significant effect on Crime rates in Iran. It should be noted that the long-term effects of both variables are greater than their short-term effects. On the other hand, according to the results of the research, Inflation in the short run and long run will have a greater impact on Crime rates (Social Security).

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