Forecasting of Iran Tourism Flow Using the Improved Gray Model, GM (1, 1)

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

AHANGARI A.; Ghobashi N.

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN Year:2019 | Volume:8 | Issue:31 Page(s): 159-173

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

392

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

Forecasting of Iran Tourism Flow Using the Improved Gray Model, GM (1, 1)

Author(s)

AHANGARI A. | Ghobashi N. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Tourism PredictionQ2

TourismQ2

Improved Grey ModelQ1

GM modelQ1

Abstract

The global Tourism industry, which has invested in many countries for its profits, can be a substitute for countries exporting raw materials. This industry can have various developmental effects, such as currency earnings, re-distribution of income, job creation and economic prosperity and since it is closely related to other industries such as hoteliers, transportation, travel agencies, craftsmen, and restaurateurs. Today Tourism is considered as one of the most important components and development indicators, as most countries make special investments in this sector. Due to its historical and natural status, Iran has a good basis for foreign Tourism expansion. Issues that will help government officials and planners to maximize their productivity and profitability from foreign Tourism is predicting tourist demand for years to come. In this regard, this paper, using the improved Gray Model GM (1, 1), seeks to provide a good prediction of the future tourist demand for Iran. The privileged feature of the GM's (1, 1) improved gray model is that it can be predicted with a very low number of data and in addition has a very low error. The results of the research show that Tourism demand is increasing and by 2022 the demand for foreign Tourism will reach 17. 5 million per year. Also, comparing the results of GM (1, 1) model with ARIMA method indicates a lower error of GM (1, 1) model in predicting the number of foreign tourists. Considering the importance of predicting the Tourism demand in planning and the characteristics of the GM model (1, 1) it will be useful, carrying out separate researches on the demand of foreign tourists from different countries. Since tourists in different regions have different cultures and desires, separate studies can be useful in more accurate planning.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

AHANGARI, A., & Ghobashi, N.. (2019). Forecasting of Iran Tourism Flow Using the Improved Gray Model, GM (1, 1). JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN, 8(31 ), 159-173. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/383654/en

Vancouver: Copy

AHANGARI A., Ghobashi N.. Forecasting of Iran Tourism Flow Using the Improved Gray Model, GM (1, 1). JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN[Internet]. 2019;8(31 ):159-173. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/383654/en

IEEE: Copy

A. AHANGARI, and N. Ghobashi, “Forecasting of Iran Tourism Flow Using the Improved Gray Model, GM (1, 1),” JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN, vol. 8, no. 31 , pp. 159–173, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/383654/en

Related Journal Papers

No record.

Related Seminar Papers

No record.

Related Plans

No record.

Recommended Workshops