Economic, political and institutional shocks and their effect on the commercial cycles of the chosen oil exporting countries

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Azimi Hosseini Anita; Akbari Moqadam Beitollah; ASADI MORTEZA

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Journal: Journal of Economic Studies and Policies Year:2019 | Volume:14 | Issue:2 (110) Page(s): 29-52

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Title

Economic, political and institutional shocks and their effect on the commercial cycles of the chosen oil exporting countries

Author(s)

Azimi Hosseini Anita | Akbari Moqadam Beitollah | ASADI MORTEZA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Commercial PeriodsQ2

BVARQ1

institutionalQ2

politicalQ1

global factorsQ2

oilQ2

Abstract

In the current research the business cycles as well as significant variables that are involved in the creation of it due to the presence of institutional, political and global factors in five oil exporting countries including Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela from1996to2016using Bayesian Vector autoregression. The results acquired through variance analysis show that in short term GDP has had the utmost share in the justification of the its instability. In long term due to the increase in the role of other variables, the role of GDP has declined insofar as in the end of the period except to such countries as Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela the oil shock is among the reasons of business cycles in Canada and the same role is undertaken by financial shock in Norway. Moreover, findings show that political and institutional factors have brought about fundamental changes in the role of shocks insofar as they have reduced the effect of shocks involved in instability in long term. political and institutional factors are respectively playing the most effective roles in Iran and Norway.

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APA: Copy

Azimi Hosseini, Anita, Akbari Moqadam, Beitollah, & ASADI, MORTEZA. (2019). Economic, political and institutional shocks and their effect on the commercial cycles of the chosen oil exporting countries. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES AND POLICIES, 14(2 (110) ), 29-52. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/384089/en

Vancouver: Copy

Azimi Hosseini Anita, Akbari Moqadam Beitollah, ASADI MORTEZA. Economic, political and institutional shocks and their effect on the commercial cycles of the chosen oil exporting countries. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES AND POLICIES[Internet]. 2019;14(2 (110) ):29-52. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/384089/en

IEEE: Copy

Anita Azimi Hosseini, Beitollah Akbari Moqadam, and MORTEZA ASADI, “Economic, political and institutional shocks and their effect on the commercial cycles of the chosen oil exporting countries,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES AND POLICIES, vol. 14, no. 2 (110) , pp. 29–52, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/384089/en

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