Estimating gasoline product demand in Iran during the period from 1995 to 2017 using the state-space model and relevant guidelines for price liberalizations

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Hashemi Hooshmand; MOHAMMADI TEIMOOR; KHALILI FARZANEH; Asgary Farid

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Journal: JOURNAL OF APPLIED THEORIES OF ECONOMICS Year:2020 | Volume:7 | Issue:1 Page(s): 1-28

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Title

Estimating gasoline product demand in Iran during the period from 1995 to 2017 using the state-space model and relevant guidelines for price liberalizations

Author(s)

Hashemi Hooshmand | MOHAMMADI TEIMOOR | KHALILI FARZANEH | Asgary Farid | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

gasoline demandQ2

state-space modelQ1

Kalman filter techniqueQ2

time varying coefficientsQ1

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the estimation of gasoline demand by the state-space model and the implications for price liberalization using the Kalman filter technique in the framework of time-varying pattern. For this purpose, data on the Energy Balance Sheet and the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company during the period of 1396-1374 have been used. The results of the estimation of the model indicate that the price elasticity of gasoline varies in the period under review and after implementing the targeted subsidies (1389-1396) in some seasons of the year, absolute value the price of gasoline increased and decreased in some seasons. With three different scenarios, it is expected that each year, with a 10% increase in gasoline prices in the sixth development plan, Unexpectedly, demand for gasoline will not decrease. Also, due to the fact that absolute value of the stretching of the price of gasoline at the beginning of the sixth plan of development is greater and at the end of the program, the gasoline price increase over the program should not be the same. Therefore, it is recommended that planners and policy makers to control the demand for gas should set the price of gasoline in the sixth development plan more than 10% and this increase should be from the beginning of the program to the end of the program ascending.

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APA: Copy

Hashemi, Hooshmand, MOHAMMADI, TEIMOOR, KHALILI, FARZANEH, & Asgary, Farid. (2020). Estimating gasoline product demand in Iran during the period from 1995 to 2017 using the state-space model and relevant guidelines for price liberalizations. JOURNAL OF APPLIED THEORIES OF ECONOMICS, 7(1 ), 1-28. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/384474/en

Vancouver: Copy

Hashemi Hooshmand, MOHAMMADI TEIMOOR, KHALILI FARZANEH, Asgary Farid. Estimating gasoline product demand in Iran during the period from 1995 to 2017 using the state-space model and relevant guidelines for price liberalizations. JOURNAL OF APPLIED THEORIES OF ECONOMICS[Internet]. 2020;7(1 ):1-28. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/384474/en

IEEE: Copy

Hooshmand Hashemi, TEIMOOR MOHAMMADI, FARZANEH KHALILI, and Farid Asgary, “Estimating gasoline product demand in Iran during the period from 1995 to 2017 using the state-space model and relevant guidelines for price liberalizations,” JOURNAL OF APPLIED THEORIES OF ECONOMICS, vol. 7, no. 1 , pp. 1–28, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/384474/en

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