Designing a Model for Scenarios Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Key Actors' Interactions.

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RAHBAR FARHAD; Saifoddine Asl Amir Ali; SHAHHOSSEINI MOHAMMAD ALI; Niazi Eesa

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Journal: PUBLIC MANAGEMENT RESEARCHES Year:2018 | Volume:11 | Issue:39 Page(s): 36-59

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Designing a Model for Scenarios Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Key Actors' Interactions.

Author(s)

RAHBAR FARHAD | Saifoddine Asl Amir Ali | SHAHHOSSEINI MOHAMMAD ALI | Niazi Eesa | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Futures StudiesQ1

Scenario PlanningQ1

MICMACQ1

MACTORQ1

Scenario WizardQ1

MULTIPOLQ1

Abstract

Scenario Planning is a technique that, given environmental uncertainties, offers several perspectives different from the future. The scenarios present the possible future scenarios in stories and provide alternative narratives about future-related situations. Scenario Planning is one of the best and most powerful tools for future scientific knowledge that can be used to identify and review future changes and uncertainties in the future. Given the importance of scenario analysis and its effects on the country's macro-programs, organizations, firms, etc., the success and effectiveness of scenario-making processes has always been a concern for the management of countries. Considering the key role of casters in the future, this research seeks to extract the behavior of the actors in each of the key elements of the future, in order to develop existing methods, and then proceed with scenarios. To this end, the scenarios that were developed by researchers and experts in this field were reviewed and a new framework for studying scenario was obtained and validated by a team of experts in this area.

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APA: Copy

RAHBAR, FARHAD, Saifoddine Asl, Amir Ali, SHAHHOSSEINI, MOHAMMAD ALI, & Niazi, Eesa. (2018). Designing a Model for Scenarios Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Key Actors' Interactions.. PUBLIC MANAGEMENT RESEARCHES, 11(39 ), 36-59. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/397502/en

Vancouver: Copy

RAHBAR FARHAD, Saifoddine Asl Amir Ali, SHAHHOSSEINI MOHAMMAD ALI, Niazi Eesa. Designing a Model for Scenarios Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Key Actors' Interactions.. PUBLIC MANAGEMENT RESEARCHES[Internet]. 2018;11(39 ):36-59. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/397502/en

IEEE: Copy

FARHAD RAHBAR, Amir Ali Saifoddine Asl, MOHAMMAD ALI SHAHHOSSEINI, and Eesa Niazi, “Designing a Model for Scenarios Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Key Actors' Interactions.,” PUBLIC MANAGEMENT RESEARCHES, vol. 11, no. 39 , pp. 36–59, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/397502/en

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