The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

NASIRI MOHAMMAD REZA; JABALAMELI MOHAMMAD SAEED; ALIAHMADI ALIREZA

Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY Year:2019 | Volume:4 | Issue:12 Page(s): 7-37

Download Full-Text

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Persian Verion

View:

630

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach

Author(s)

NASIRI MOHAMMAD REZA | JABALAMELI MOHAMMAD SAEED | ALIAHMADI ALIREZA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Scenario PlanningQ1

Forecasting ApproachQ1

Meta Synthesis methodQ1

Comprehensive Scenario Planning ModelQ1

Abstract

Scenario Planning is a tool for dealing with environmental uncertainty. Since the 1950s, several scientific methods have been proposed for various categories, such as pastcasting, forecasting and backcasting, qualitative and quantitative, deductive and inductive, non-participatory and participatory, exploratory and normative, etc. The variety and Multiplicity of methods has made the users practically confused in choosing the right method and implementing it. The researcher, considering the first category, has tried with the scientific gurus in 10 methods as the target of the research due to the prevalence of forecasting Scenario Planning models in this category and the lack of a study to provide a comprehensive model in this regard. The importance of this research is to increase the ease of understanding and implementation of the steps, increase the quality and reliability of the results, and reduce the concern of experts to select the appropriate Scenario Planning scenario. Failure to do so will increase the user's mistakes in choosing the right model and over-simplifying or Prolongation the planning of Scenario Planning projects. The methodology of research is based on the structural paradigm, developmental orientation, qualitative type and its method, descriptive and case research that were carried out using the Meta Synthesis method. To test the model, a number of experts were selected by non-random sampling method, and by using the Delphi tool, interviews continued until theoretical saturation. The final model of the research was presented in the form of two general phases, four main stages and fourteen sub steps.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

NASIRI, MOHAMMAD REZA, JABALAMELI, MOHAMMAD SAEED, & ALIAHMADI, ALIREZA. (2019). The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach. DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY, 4(12 ), 7-37. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/397715/en

Vancouver: Copy

NASIRI MOHAMMAD REZA, JABALAMELI MOHAMMAD SAEED, ALIAHMADI ALIREZA. The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach. DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY[Internet]. 2019;4(12 ):7-37. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/397715/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMMAD REZA NASIRI, MOHAMMAD SAEED JABALAMELI, and ALIREZA ALIAHMADI, “The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach,” DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY, vol. 4, no. 12 , pp. 7–37, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/397715/en

Related Journal Papers