The Future Political Scenarios of Yemen up to 2029

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Voghoufi Omid

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Journal: HORIZONS OF SECURITY Year:2021 | Volume:13 | Issue:49 Page(s): 85-113

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Information Journal Paper

Title

The Future Political Scenarios of Yemen up to 2029

Author(s)

Voghoufi Omid | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

YemenQ1

Futures StudyQ1

scenario writingQ1

DriversQ1

UncertaintyQ1

Abstract

Understanding the Drivers, events, and trends influencing the shaping of future, can help identify and explain alternative futures from a futurist perspective. Yemen is located in Southwest Asia and is of special strategic importance. Understanding the future political scenarios of Yemen is essentially important for the strategic planning of the Islamic Republic of Iran in this country. This exploratory research investigates key Drivers and actors for exploring scenarios of the alternative political future of Yemen up to the horizon of 2029. This is a combined research applying quantitative and qualitative methods using futurist techniques such as review of literature, elite panel, analysis of cross referential and balanced works, scenario writing, and using Wizard and Excel software for designing the scenarios of the future of the political future of Yemen until 2029. 21 experts were referred to in the implementation of this study. Among the 78 Drivers for Yemen's future, three key Drivers were identified by experts, and six scenarios were identified based on the output of the Wizard software and expert confirmation. Then, the stories were written and the scenarios were subjected to the "wind tunnel" test. Afterwards, the significance of the realization and validation of the scenarios were identified in the expert panel. Scenario number one was selected as the most desirable one for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Key influential players for this scenarios were identified.

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APA: Copy

Voghoufi, Omid. (2021). The Future Political Scenarios of Yemen up to 2029. HORIZONS OF SECURITY, 13(49 ), 85-113. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/405449/en

Vancouver: Copy

Voghoufi Omid. The Future Political Scenarios of Yemen up to 2029. HORIZONS OF SECURITY[Internet]. 2021;13(49 ):85-113. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/405449/en

IEEE: Copy

Omid Voghoufi, “The Future Political Scenarios of Yemen up to 2029,” HORIZONS OF SECURITY, vol. 13, no. 49 , pp. 85–113, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/405449/en

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