ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON IRAN'S FOREIGN TRADE USING DSGE APPROACH

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VALIBEIGI HASSAN; YAVARI KAZEM; EBRAHIMI ILNAZ; SAHABI BAHRAM

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Trade Studies Year:2017 | Volume:21 | Issue:83 Page(s): 1-34

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Title

ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON IRAN'S FOREIGN TRADE USING DSGE APPROACH

Author(s)

VALIBEIGI HASSAN | YAVARI KAZEM | EBRAHIMI ILNAZ | SAHABI BAHRAM | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DSGEQ1

MONETARY POLICYQ2

FISCAL POLICYQ2

RIGIDITYQ2

EXPORTQ2

Abstract

Due to such implications as increased inflation and decreased real exchange rate, there has always been controversy about the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies. This paper aims to analyze the effects of monetary shocks and government expenditures on macroeconomic indicators of Iran (especially on imports and EXPORTs) using the DSGE new Keynesian open economy model. For this purpose, a DSGE model is developed according to the characteristics of Iran's economy, such as the presence of oil sector and the rigidities. The model parameters are estimated for the time span of 1972 to 2014, where some parameters are calibrated and others are calculated using the Bayesian method. The results obtained from the impulse response functions, indicate that the positive base money growth rate shock will lead to increased imports, decreased EXPORTs and deteriorated non-oil trade balance. Also theoretically, it will increase inflation, production, investment and employment. The positive government expenditure shock causes inflation, which will decrease the real exchange rate. This in turn will reduce non-oil EXPORTs and will increase imports, which will finally deteriorate non-oil trade balance of the country. On the other hand, the increased government expenditures will increase the production, but part of this growth will be crowded out because of reduced private investment.

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APA: Copy

VALIBEIGI, HASSAN, YAVARI, KAZEM, EBRAHIMI, ILNAZ, & SAHABI, BAHRAM. (2017). ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON IRAN'S FOREIGN TRADE USING DSGE APPROACH. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), 21(83 ), 1-34. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/7106/en

Vancouver: Copy

VALIBEIGI HASSAN, YAVARI KAZEM, EBRAHIMI ILNAZ, SAHABI BAHRAM. ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON IRAN'S FOREIGN TRADE USING DSGE APPROACH. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS)[Internet]. 2017;21(83 ):1-34. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/7106/en

IEEE: Copy

HASSAN VALIBEIGI, KAZEM YAVARI, ILNAZ EBRAHIMI, and BAHRAM SAHABI, “ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON IRAN'S FOREIGN TRADE USING DSGE APPROACH,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), vol. 21, no. 83 , pp. 1–34, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/7106/en

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