FACTORS FORMING NON-OIL EXPORTS RECESSION AND THE STRATEGIES OF RELIEF

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MOJAVER HOSSEINI F.

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Trade Studies Year:2000 | Volume:4 | Issue:14 Page(s): 1-36

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Title

FACTORS FORMING NON-OIL EXPORTS RECESSION AND THE STRATEGIES OF RELIEF

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MOJAVER HOSSEINI F. | Issue Writer Certificate

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Abstract

Prior to the shocks of 1974, Iran enjoyed one of the highest growth rate in non-oil exports in the world. The country"s growth rate after this time, declined to the lowest in the world and it has continued to be the same until now. This paper reveals the main reasons as demand mismanagement and the government exchange policies. In order to examine these assumptions, two models of general equilibrium based on the basic years of 1973 and 1991, with two different sector allocations, have been used. In these models, the performance of various policies, including the quantity and ways of spending government costs as well as different currency exchange policies are simulated. The results indicate that, by and large, non-oil exports have been increased together with increases in the oil revenues. This has led to a decrease in the domestic demand. The government policies can. affect this general orientation and sometimes shifts the changes towards the opposite direction. The simulation result shows, whenever the oil revenues decreases which follows by a decline in demand, government intervenes in the exchange market and implements exchange allocation policies. In these circumstances the possibility of decrease in the non-oil exports raises. It is worth saying that in comparison with flexible exchange policies, those allocation policies that lead to rises in the non-oil exports, are under optimum point and the cost of adjustment relative to national income decline is considerably higher than the flexible exchange system. If exchange allocations acoinsides with rent seeking activities, disregard of any alterations in the exports volume, the national income will severly decrease.

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APA: Copy

MOJAVER HOSSEINI, F.. (2000). FACTORS FORMING NON-OIL EXPORTS RECESSION AND THE STRATEGIES OF RELIEF. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), 4(14), 1-36. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/7264/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOJAVER HOSSEINI F.. FACTORS FORMING NON-OIL EXPORTS RECESSION AND THE STRATEGIES OF RELIEF. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS)[Internet]. 2000;4(14):1-36. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/7264/en

IEEE: Copy

F. MOJAVER HOSSEINI, “FACTORS FORMING NON-OIL EXPORTS RECESSION AND THE STRATEGIES OF RELIEF,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), vol. 4, no. 14, pp. 1–36, 2000, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/7264/en

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