Research Note: Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches for the Estimation of the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude in Iran

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SALAMAT MONA; ZARE MEHDI

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Year:2019 | Volume:21 | Issue:1 Page(s): 55-63

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Title

Research Note: Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches for the Estimation of the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude in Iran

Author(s)

SALAMAT MONA | ZARE MEHDI | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Pseudo-dynamic approach

Inclined retaining wall

Seismic active earth pressure

Inclined cohesive soil backfill

Soil amplification factor

Abstract

The maximum earthquake magnitude plays a crucial role in different aspects of seismic hazard and risk assessments. Previous work by Salamat et al. [1] shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude Mmax for high levels of confidence 1-a, in different seismotectonic zones of Iran. For this, Mmax is replaced by the maximum expected earthquake magnitude mt that is calculated for different predefined future time intervals Tf. In this work, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied to calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of mt. The frequentist confidence intervals are calculated for the level of confidence 1-a = 95% and 99%, and future time intervals Tf = 30, 50 years. In the Bayesian approach, the posterior distributions of the maximum expected earthquake magnitude are calculated for Tf = 30, 50 years and 90% confidence level. The stationary Poisson process in time and Gutenberg Richter relation are assumed as a statistical model for the magnitude distribution. In order to estimate mt in each seismotectonic zone, three different scenarios of Mmax= 8. 5, 9. 0, 9. 5 are assumed. In order to find the influence of the declustering, all calculations are applied for both original and declustered catalogs. The results show, as long as the length of the time interval is short or moderate, different values of Mmax have a minor effect on the estimation of the maximum expected earthquake magnitude mt.

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APA: Copy

SALAMAT, MONA, & ZARE, MEHDI. (2019). Research Note: Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches for the Estimation of the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude in Iran. JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING, 21(1), 55-63. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/740879/en

Vancouver: Copy

SALAMAT MONA, ZARE MEHDI. Research Note: Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches for the Estimation of the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude in Iran. JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2019;21(1):55-63. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/740879/en

IEEE: Copy

MONA SALAMAT, and MEHDI ZARE, “Research Note: Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches for the Estimation of the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude in Iran,” JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 55–63, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/740879/en

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