FORECASTING DAILY AND ANNUAL RAINFALL AND NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOV CHAIN IN A SEMI-ARID REGION

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FOULADMAND H.R.

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Journal: Year:2006 | Volume:12 | Issue:1 Page(s): 113-125

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Title

FORECASTING DAILY AND ANNUAL RAINFALL AND NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOV CHAIN IN A SEMI-ARID REGION

Author(s)

FOULADMAND H.R. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FORECASTING RAINFALLQ3

NUMBER OF RAINY DAYSQ3

MARKOV CHAINQ3

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONQ3

GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONQ3

Abstract

A first order MARKOV CHAIN for forecasting precipitation occurrence, and two different distributions (exponential and gamma) were used for estimating the rainfall amounts on rainy days, by using 33 years historical daily rainfall data, in Bajgah area in Fars province. To determine MARKOV CHAIN transitional probabilities, rainfall events equal or greater than 5 mm, were considered. The results showed that GAMMA DISTRIBUTION is more appropriate than EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION, and the mean NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS and mean annual rainfall forecasted by this distribution, were estimated 19 days and 371.2 mm, respectively.Also, the actual mean NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS and mean annual rainfall are 21 days and 394.3 mm, respectively.

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APA: Copy

FOULADMAND, H.R.. (2006). FORECASTING DAILY AND ANNUAL RAINFALL AND NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOV CHAIN IN A SEMI-ARID REGION. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 12(1), 113-125. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/7673/en

Vancouver: Copy

FOULADMAND H.R.. FORECASTING DAILY AND ANNUAL RAINFALL AND NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOV CHAIN IN A SEMI-ARID REGION. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES[Internet]. 2006;12(1):113-125. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/7673/en

IEEE: Copy

H.R. FOULADMAND, “FORECASTING DAILY AND ANNUAL RAINFALL AND NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOV CHAIN IN A SEMI-ARID REGION,” JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 113–125, 2006, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/7673/en

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