ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITIES OF DROUGHT AND WET, USING DROUGHT INDICES SPI AND MARKOV CHAIN

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SIASAR HADI; SHAHRDERAZI FARIDEH

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Seminar Paper

Paper Information

Seminar: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Year:2016 | Issue:2

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Title

ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITIES OF DROUGHT AND WET, USING DROUGHT INDICES SPI AND MARKOV CHAIN

Author(s)

SIASAR HADI | SHAHRDERAZI FARIDEH

Keywords

DROUGHT

SPI

MARKOV CHAIN

THE CITY OF SARAVAN

Abstract

DROUGHT IS A NATURAL DISASTER BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE CAUSED BY THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OCCUR.SUCCESSFUL PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND PROPER USE OF WATER RESOURCES IS SUBJECT TO RECOGNITION OF THIS DISASTER. SINCE DROUGHT IS INEVITABLE CAN BE FOUND THROUGH MONITORING AND FORECASTING DROUGHT DROUGHT DAMAGE WAS MINIMAL. HENCE THE IMPORTANCE OF DROUGHT FORECASTING IN THE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES. IN REVIEWING DATA FROM ANNUAL RAINFALL DROUGHT, SARAVAN CITY OF SARAVAN SYNOPTIC STATIONS IN THE PERIOD (1355-1393) AND THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI), THE TWELVE-MONTH TIME SCALE IS USED. THEN THE MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO CALCULATE THE BALANCE OF PROBABILITIES PERIODS OF WET, DRY AND NORMAL ANNUAL SPI WAS USED. THE RESULTS SHOWED THAT THE PROBABILITY OF BALANCE OF WET, DRY AND NORMAL, RESPECTIVELY SARAVAN STATION 2.80, 20.24 AND 76.96 PERCENT, WHICH MEANS THAT IN MOST OF THE REGION'S NORMAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS, IN WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF A DROUGHT ALMOST SEVEN TIMES MORE LIKELY TO BE WET.

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APA: Copy

SIASAR, HADI, & SHAHRDERAZI, FARIDEH. (2016). ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITIES OF DROUGHT AND WET, USING DROUGHT INDICES SPI AND MARKOV CHAIN. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING AND NATURAL RESOURCES. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/909705/en

Vancouver: Copy

SIASAR HADI, SHAHRDERAZI FARIDEH. ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITIES OF DROUGHT AND WET, USING DROUGHT INDICES SPI AND MARKOV CHAIN. 2016. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/909705/en

IEEE: Copy

HADI SIASAR, and FARIDEH SHAHRDERAZI, “ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITIES OF DROUGHT AND WET, USING DROUGHT INDICES SPI AND MARKOV CHAIN,” presented at the INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING AND NATURAL RESOURCES. 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/909705/en

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