SIMULATION KARTS SPRING DISCHARGE BY USING GREY SYSTEM

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MIRARABI A.; JAMALI M.; VADIATI M.; Khalili baseri H.

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Seminar Paper

Paper Information

Seminar: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Year:2013 | Issue:2

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Title

SIMULATION KARTS SPRING DISCHARGE BY USING GREY SYSTEM

Author(s)

MIRARABI A. | JAMALI M. | VADIATI M. | Khalili baseri H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

KARST SPRING

GRAY SYSTEM

FORECASTING

Abstract

STATISTICALLY BASED METHODS SUCH AS LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL, TIME SERIES MODEL AND MARKOV METHODS WERE ANALYZED TO IDENTIFY THE MOST RELIABLE MODEL TO PREDICT SPRING FLOWS IN A KARST AQUIFER. GREY SYSTEM IS THE MOST IMPORTANT STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE KARST SPRING DISCHARGE PREDICTION. GREY SYSTEM THEORY IS AN EFFECTIVE TOOL FOR SOLVING A PHYSICAL PROBLEM WHICH IS COMPLEX OR INDISTINCT. SIMPLE DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WHICH CALLED GREY MODELS ARE USED TO IDENTIFY THE INTERACTION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEVERAL FACTORS. EVEN THE TRUE BEHAVIOR OF THESE FACTORS IS UNRELIABLE, GREY MODELS ALSO CAN PROVIDE SATISFIED PREDICTION RESULT. IN THIS PAPER, BASED ON GREY SYSTEM THEORY, THE GENERAL GM(1,1) PREDICTION MODEL FOR SIMULATING FLUCTUATION OF AZNAV KARST SPRING DISCHARGE IN NW IRAN WAS SET UP AND IT HAS BEEN PROOF-TESTED IN MODEL PRECISION. THE SMALL ERROR PROBABILITY (P), VARIANCE RATIO (C) AND MAPE OF GM(1,1) MODEL WAS 100% , 0.23 AND 7.05% RESPECTIVELY. THE RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH INDICATES THAT THIS MODEL SHOW GOOD RESULTS FOR ESTIMATION BY FORECASTING.

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APA: Copy

MIRARABI, A., JAMALI, M., VADIATI, M., & Khalili baseri, H.. (2013). SIMULATION KARTS SPRING DISCHARGE BY USING GREY SYSTEM. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/927976/en

Vancouver: Copy

MIRARABI A., JAMALI M., VADIATI M., Khalili baseri H.. SIMULATION KARTS SPRING DISCHARGE BY USING GREY SYSTEM. 2013. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/927976/en

IEEE: Copy

A. MIRARABI, M. JAMALI, M. VADIATI, and H. Khalili baseri, “SIMULATION KARTS SPRING DISCHARGE BY USING GREY SYSTEM,” presented at the INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES. 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/927976/en

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