Applying the Nonlinear Mild Transition Regression (STR) Model in Determining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Burden of Pension Funds for the Government

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MOKRI FARANAK; ZANDI FATEMEH; Hosseini Seyed Shamseddin; KHEZRI MOHAMMAD

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Journal: Journal of Economic Research and Policies Year:2021 | Volume:29 | Issue:98 Page(s): 447-477

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Title

Applying the Nonlinear Mild Transition Regression (STR) Model in Determining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Burden of Pension Funds for the Government

Author(s)

MOKRI FARANAK | ZANDI FATEMEH | Hosseini Seyed Shamseddin | KHEZRI MOHAMMAD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Macroeconomic variables

Pension funds

Financial burden on government budget

STR model

Abstract

The purpose of this article is considering the Macroeconomic variables affecting on financial burden of Iranian Pension funds, which these variables are unemployment rate, inflation rate, stock exchange return rate, economic growth rate and real exchange rate. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period 1384 to 1398 and non-linear transfer regression model(STR) have been used. The results of model estimation showed that the variables of economic growth, stock exchange return and real exchange rate have negative effects on the financial burden of Pension funds for government budget in both low and high regimes (inflation ≤ 15%) and (inflation ≥ 15%). Also, in a low-inflation regime, rising inflation had more short-term inflationary effects on the financial burden of Pension funds. In addition, the sum of the coefficients of the unemployment rate and its intermittent values were positive in the first regime and negative in the second regime, so that, in the first regime an increase in the unemployment rate had severe short-term inflationary effects on The financial burden has been on Pension funds for the government budget. Based on the obtained results, reforming the country's pension regulations and paying attention to actuarial calculations, reviewing restrictive laws in the field of pension fund investment, settlement of claims of them by the government and also the existence of a regulatory body for these funds were presented.

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APA: Copy

MOKRI, FARANAK, ZANDI, FATEMEH, Hosseini, Seyed Shamseddin, & KHEZRI, MOHAMMAD. (2021). Applying the Nonlinear Mild Transition Regression (STR) Model in Determining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Burden of Pension Funds for the Government. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICIES, 29(98 ), 447-477. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/955083/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOKRI FARANAK, ZANDI FATEMEH, Hosseini Seyed Shamseddin, KHEZRI MOHAMMAD. Applying the Nonlinear Mild Transition Regression (STR) Model in Determining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Burden of Pension Funds for the Government. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICIES[Internet]. 2021;29(98 ):447-477. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/955083/en

IEEE: Copy

FARANAK MOKRI, FATEMEH ZANDI, Seyed Shamseddin Hosseini, and MOHAMMAD KHEZRI, “Applying the Nonlinear Mild Transition Regression (STR) Model in Determining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Burden of Pension Funds for the Government,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICIES, vol. 29, no. 98 , pp. 447–477, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/955083/en

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