IMPACT OF LNG PRICE ON ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF LNG PROJECTS (BASED ON A REAL CASE STUDY)

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

JAVAN AFSHIN

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2011 | Volume:7 | Issue:27 Page(s): 155-180

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

806

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

IMPACT OF LNG PRICE ON ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF LNG PROJECTS (BASED ON A REAL CASE STUDY)

Author(s)

JAVAN AFSHIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURNQ3

NET PRESENT VALUEQ3

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONQ2

SENSITIVITY ANALYSISQ2

LNG PRICING MODELSQ3

LNG MARKETQ3

PROJECT FINANCEQ3

Abstract

There are many difficulties associated with economic evaluation of technologically complex mega projects. Given the dependence of the economic viability of such projects on an extensive set of technical and economic information, a major part of which have stochastic behavior and are subject to uncertainty, in this study we use actual data from a particular case study.The case study is the Papua New Guinea LNG (PNG LNG) project, which is forecast to deliver direct capital investment of around US$10 billion in real terms over the 25 year life of the project.Recurrent operating expenditure, including a significant level of local spending on support services, is expected to average $680 million per year. Total operational expenditure over the first 25 years after commencement of production from the project is expected to be around $23 billion. We aim to assess if this costly project would remain economically feasible, if one changes the assumptions with respect to LNG prices We assess the market sale price risk by studying the 10 year time series data of crude oil prices, based on the notion of equivalent pricing of LNG and using MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. We assess the economic feasibility of the project for different price scenarios.Notions of capital costs (CAPEX) and operating costs (OPEX) are subject to a high level of uncertainty and increasing the margin of error from 5% to 10% can jeopardize the viability of the project.Varying the assumptions on items such as Dollar and Euro exchange rates, LNG price formula, predicted project income, marketing issues and project management in the operational period have major effect on viability of the project.In this study, based on given assumptions on the main variables of LNG price, we calculate the IRR and NPV of the project and its sensitivity to changes in the value of this variable.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

JAVAN, AFSHIN. (2011). IMPACT OF LNG PRICE ON ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF LNG PROJECTS (BASED ON A REAL CASE STUDY). ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, 7(27), 155-180. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/99526/en

Vancouver: Copy

JAVAN AFSHIN. IMPACT OF LNG PRICE ON ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF LNG PROJECTS (BASED ON A REAL CASE STUDY). ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW[Internet]. 2011;7(27):155-180. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/99526/en

IEEE: Copy

AFSHIN JAVAN, “IMPACT OF LNG PRICE ON ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF LNG PROJECTS (BASED ON A REAL CASE STUDY),” ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, vol. 7, no. 27, pp. 155–180, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/99526/en

Related Journal Papers