JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY
Year:2011 | Volume:4 | Issue:13|Papers Count:8

natural disasters are a part of our environment nature that humans numerous construction and people attack to risky areas and ignoring natural boudrices in civil areas lead to occurring and converting the natural disasters in to human and economical damaging crisis’s. The studied area has located in southern east of the province Fars and is on Zagros crackly belt and has relatively high quake us potential. in this article initially Fasa city has been divided to five division areas and then basic factors effective in vulnerability such as natural bed, buildings quality, communicative network, sensitive application and … as the biggest population center in this expansion (with 110820 persons) and in each of the examined areas and city in vulnerability. At vulnerability of each of the areas, positioning examined crisis head quarter center and procedure suitable to feature development of the city. The applied tools are geology, topography maps and … statistics obtained from different organizations and associations. The software Google earth has been used for vertical view on the area the software auto cad to examine terrain and different civil applications.

The Northern hemispheres in general and geomorphic basin in particular are affected by quaternary fluctuations and change pale climatic changes. Usually, time basin of pale climatic changes is between 10000 and 200000 years and climatic change cycle time is between some and 10000 years. (Laukhin 1992) Pale climatic fluctuations are reversible, but climatic changes are repeated. Such reversibility and repetition have resulted in the formation of the earth´s crust in fasa. The present condition resembles a factory which reacts negatively and positively following the input of material and energy after the shortage of entropy either in steady state or changes and fluctuations. The recognition of such reactions may give rise to best logistic management which in the subject of this article.

Wind is one of the complex climatic variables and its changes in the short term and long-term impact on global, regional and local climate characteristics and one of the important factors in climate change. Wind speed rarely has been studied for detecting climate change. The aim of this study is Trend analysis of wind speed in the North West of Iran. For this, seven synoptic stations with the longest period (1961-2005) were used. First, statistical characteristics of monthly, seasonal and average wind speed were analyzed using graphs and tables in order to provide an overall view of the wind speed in the study area. Then, trend of this climatic variable was studied over time based on statistical methods. Mann- Kendall non-parametric test was selected to analyze the data. The results showed that the North West of Iran is not homogeneous Region of wind speed during the period. Also; the results of the statistical methods showed that in urmia and khoy is seen decreasing trend and in Ardebil and zanjan is seen increasing trend. In Tabriz and Sanandaj can be seen a decreasing trend in one and two time series. Saghez is no trend in seasonal and annual scales. So we can conclude that Trends occurring in the study area hasn’t a special order.

Regarding the importance of instantaneous peak discharge estimation for watershed management study, in this research make an effort to make link between constant parameters (geomorphologic) and variable (hydrologic) to present models with minimum dependence on climatic and hydrologic data in hydrologic estimation. So, with using of synthetic unit hydrograph at drainage basin of Kan (Soleghan River) and to compare these results with recorded peak discharge in outlet of watershed, the best model can be derived. So, comparison of study models from relative mean error (RME) and root of mean square error (RMSE) in study drainage basin located in central Alborz watershed shows RME for GIUH model is 17.99, RMSE is 15.46 for Snyder RME is 59.66, RMSE is 26.83, SCS and Triangular models have the best estimation, respectively. Regarding to lack of recorded instantaneous peak discharge in Kan drainage basin’s hydrometric station (11 events), we can’t drive instantaneous peak discharge model. For this reason, with using of factors in each of studied models, other effective factors and 82 recorded events of daily peak discharge, daily peak discharge model derived. So the purpose of this study is presentation regional model for peak discharge estimation. For this purpose from GIUH, Synyder, SCS and Triangular models factors and other effective factors used.

With all the importance of water in the economy Iran is, every year floods volumes high of waters and Prolific soils of the country and access out to the desert, lakes and seas delivers. Kashkan River Basin of sub basins important is basin Karkheh. This study examines the changes in annual rainfall, trend the Runoff, rainfall- runoff, frequensity rainfall 24 hours and intensity in the catchment bastion of rainfall in basin Level is very different. And according to Local water conditions and topographical features of the high zagros mountains- rainfall received in the basin every different despite the stability of average annual rainfall, annual runoff coefficient of the additive is steep and significant. Comparison average first decade and second decade period 29 years showed the annual runoff coefficient in the second decade of the first decade has increased 84 percent. Increased runoff and flood in recent years, only to cause precipitation of quantitative terms, no matter what, but is seems that other factors such as land use changes, deforestation, degradation of Grassland into Agricultural land, urban development, rural housing development and the impact of flooding has increased dramatically in rural areas. It is expected that more severe floods occurrence. The monthly distribution of rainfall in the basin suggest that the rainfall on the basin at the end the year is cold. Instead of the heat loss due to weather condititions generally are extremely liquid and became a flood.

Phenomenon of urban flooding was brought by the physical expansion of cities in the world that makes severe injuries on the bodies of large cities in the developed developing countries.Bad memories of floods in Tehran in 1366 in Glabdrh and during1373- 74 in Kan basin express Tehran vulnerability against floods. Tehran is located on the southern in the Alborz and Basins of Jajrud, Ken and Karaj and several small basins.Inharmonious development in Tehran, lack of privacy of natural hydrographic network, land leveling and construction, disorder of Drainage system due to Occupation of watercourse, Implementation of some projects such as the West watercourse and drained tunnels in Tehran central and Construction of several highways along the East - West which they have broken the major drainage have been caused floods network in Tehran increasingly Being faced with unpredictable urban floods. This research has been carried out pattern analysis of watercourse as the most important factor in spatial distribution of floods. Data used in this study have been included 10 meters elevation data, ETM+ images, landuse data, watercourse network and field research. Methodology in this study was compared functions. The results showed that Natural and artificial channels in the East and over 130 kilometers northeast of Tehran, including, Velenjak, Darband, Maghsoudbaik, Sohanak, Kashanak, Mansarieh, Darabad, Sorkhehesar, Mobarak Abad, Ghasre Firozeh, Khashayar, Tehran Pars and some small basins, over 50 percent of watercourses are in conformity with the natural drainage of Tehran. Natural and artificial channels in the West and northwest Tehran over 140 km including Darakeh, Farahzad, Hesarak, Kan, Cheetgar and the West channels over 65 percent are the lack of harmony with the natural drainage of Tehran. Network of central Tehran, including tunnels of Navab, Khayyam, shahrdari and 17 Shahrivar which is covered, but they are not able to gather runoff. Therefore, organizing the watercourse network according to the metropolitan Tehran environmental is Iran's strategy to control flooding in the capital.

Those land forms which have been made due to tectonic forces, had been always noted by geomorphologists. Due to the importance of some of these land forms in men's' life, studying and noting them is of high significance. One of these geomorphic SHAPES which has been made by Kabir Kooh landslide is Ancient Saymareh lake. Kabir Kooh landslide happened about 10 to 11 thousand years ago in Ilam and Lorestan borders. Landslide and separating of stony blocks from Kabir Kooh foothill and making obstruction in the course of Saymareh lake, made Ancient Saymareh lake in Dareh Shahr in Ilam. Saymareh is a landslide lake which has been made due to a catastrophic event. This study has surveyed the morph metric features of Saymareh lake. For finding the exact morphometric indexes of Saymareh, in addition to continual Field observe of the area, the topographic maps of 1.50000 scale, Ilam and Koohdasht geological compilation of 1.250000 scale, have been used. Also for more exact study of indexes, dem (Iran's dem), waterways maps and Iran's map have been exercised. Arc GIS, Surfer, Global Mapper, soft ware's have been utelized for cutting, making and producing new maps, specifying the exact morphometric features. Finding the exact morphometric features of Ancient Saymare lake is the purpose of this study to make the life of the people who live in this area better.

Understanding the amount of groundwater chemical characteristics variations and its zonation plays an important role in groundwater optimum management. There are many different methods to study of groundwater chemical factors that selecting suitable method depends on aim, regional conditions and availability of data. The purpose of this research is evaluating the geostatistical methods for study of spatial analysis of salinity and nitrate variation of groundwater in Neyriz plain located in southeast of Fars province. For this aim, different methods of geostatistics including ordinary kriging (OK) and simple kriging (SK) as well as deterministic methods such as inverse distance weights (IDW), radial basis function (RBF), local polynomial interpolation (LPI) and global polynomial interpolation (GPI) were used. The result showed that RBF method because of the highest R and the lowest RMSe is the most appropriate method for salinity (EC) variation mapping (R =0.702 and RMSe = 4082.529) and nitrate variation (R =0.632 and RMSe =5.021) among deterministic methods in the study area. Also the results revealed that simple kriging (SK) has the highest priority among kriging methods and is selected for salinity (EC) mapping with R=0.733 and RMSe =3907.53 and also selected with R=0.689 and RMSe =4.868 for nitrate variations mapping. Finally, the results indicated that simple kriging (SK) method has higher priority than radial basis function (RBF) method and thus is selected as suitable method for salinity (EC) mapping and nitrate variation in Neyriz plain. So, results showed that the classification of the drinking water according to the Schoeller diagram is 5.91% as "Good", 4.27% as "acceptable", 11% as "unsuitable", 22.95 as "bad", 42.34% "temporally drinkable" and 13.53% as "undrinkable". Meanwhile the quality classes for agriculture were as follow: very good (0.44%), good (5.31%), acceptable (6.88%), doubtful (7.6%) and bad (79.77%).