Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development
Year:2009 | Volume:17 | Issue:3 (67)|Papers Count:10

Undoubtedly bread is a necessary commodity which exists in all Iranian consumption templates and its wastage causes huge loss in financial sources. In this study, the wastage of Tafton bread in Zabol and its effective factors are investigated through the data gained by 200 distributed question form in Sistan region of Iran in the year 2006. Results show that the wastage degree of bread per household in Zobol is 14% of total daily consumption. Also, results show that, quantity of shopped bread has a direct relation to this wastage when the times of referring to bakery and the time of consuming have indirect effect on the wastage of bread. In addition, local breads have less wastage compared with the breads sold in bakery. Research findings showed that, improvement of the quality of delivered flour to bakeries, increasing the working time of bakeries in order to providing the fresh bread for whole of the day and finally increasing the referring times of citizens to bakery are the other suggested ways for reducing the wastage of bread.

Ilam province is one of the most deprived provinces of Iran and in terms of the development indices it is the last one as compared to other provinces of this country. Therefore, a proper management is needed to recognize the economic sectors of the province to speed up the province's growth and to serve as a stimulating factor in doing so. The instruments used in the study which shows the inter-sector relations is the input – output region table manipulated by GRIT Approach. After the formation of this table, the priority of investment in the economic sectors of the province was recognized by the use of employment and income's first and second type of the multiplier coefficient as well as the capital intensive and labor intensive relative coefficients.The results showed that economic sectors in terms of investment priority can be ranked as food nutrient, drinking and tobacco industries; non-metal minerals as well as to steel, iron-melting and agriculture, respectively.

The aim of this study was to forecast nominal and real price of some agricultural crops including Cotton, Saffron and Rice. Initially the stationary of the series was tested, then in order to investigate whether series are stochastic, nonparametric test of Vald-Wulfowitz and parametric test of Durbin-Watson were applied. Based on the tests results, all of the selected nominal crops prices and real price of Cotton were found non stochastic and predictable. The study period covers 1971-2005. Models applied to forecast are ARIMA, Single and Double Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, ARCH and Artificial Neural Network. Based on the lowest forecasting error criterion, ARIMA forecasted nominal prices of Saffron and Rice with lowest forecasting error. In the case of nominal and real price of Cotton prediction of the lowest forecasting error belongs to Artificial Neural Network and Harmonic models respectively. The lowest forecasting errors for nominal prices of Cotton, Rice and Saffron as well as of the real price of Cotton are 30.08, 11.14, 4.46 and 14.78 percent respectively.

For taking advantage of Mathematical Programming models in determination of cultivation optimum pattern in farms with attention to risk and uncertainly conditions and despite indefinite and indistinct information, new techniques of Fuzzy and Interval Programming can be used.In this research, with the use of Interval Linear Programming technique and with attention to statistics of previous tillage periods (1378-1384), cultivation optimum pattern of farmable crops are being determined under risk condition and with the aid of indistinct data and Interval Logic. The case study in this research is a farm with 85 hectare area and chosen crops are: wheat, barley, corn, sun flower, sugar beet and potato. Results indicate that Interval Programming model recommends cultivation optimum pattern of wheat, barley and potato with attention to risk condition and constraints of production, also with endure more risk, land under cultivation of barley and potato show a decrease and an increase respectively and farmers will earn more profit consequently. The results of Mentioned model as well are nearer to real world conditions.

In this research by using the last input-output table in Iran (2001), the potential of job creation, income creation and product of various sectors have been identified by different indexes. The results indicate those agricultural products (1), fats and other food stuffs products (5) and buildings (26) dedicate to them the first to the third rank of job creation among other sectors. Comparison of total production elasticity and total employment elasticity shows that in 35 sectors of Iran's economy, only 7 sectors have an employment elasticity more than production elasticity and this is in the same direction with theory of International Monetary Fund (2002) which says that in spite of high growth rate of production in Iran, growth rate of employment is still low.

Forecasting behavior of economic variables is an essential element of national planning, which is conducted frequently by time series techniques. However, the type of the model selected influences precision of forecasting results. Yet, there are many studies that have chosen an empirical model based on an ad hoc procedure rather than following a rigorous systematic approach. The main objective of this study is to present a systematic approach of specifying appropriate time series model and empirically compare the precision of forecast of the two procedures. To this end we model per capita consumption of apple and orange fruits over the period 1975-2006 and compare the MAPE of forecast errors of the models specified through the suggested approach and the ad hoc one. Results indicate that following such a systematic approach can considerably improve the precision of forecast. The correctly specified models were used to predict per capita consumption of apple and orange fruits for period 2007-2016 by the Iranian households.

The main purpose of this study is to analyze comparative advantage and protection indices of industrial crop productions during 1383. For this purpose Domestic Resource Cost Index and Policy Analysis Matrix have been used. The results indicated that Iran has had comparative advantage in Irrigated Cotton and Soybean production. On the contrary, Iran showed that it hasn’t had comparative advantage in Sugar beet and Flower seed production.Results also revealed that the private values of Cotton and Soybean are less than their social values. Respondent told that governmental policies have imposed some taxes on producers. But for all of farming crops in this paper, farmers have been protected in tradable inputs.At last, the effective protection coefficients generally indicated an affective protection on sugar beet and flower seed.

The Progress of Iran Provinces according to the National Development Plans and the Progress of Country usually have received the least concern from the policy makers, decision makers and even researchers in the past years. This claim is supported with the lack of adequate resources about the progress based on the third National Development Plan in the third year after finishing It. In this study, for the first time, we appraised the provinces trend in the years covered by the Third National Development Plan. For this, the Agriculture sector was selected due to its importance and availability of its data (years 2000-2003) using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA).The Results show that there is a significant difference between provinces in the use of inputs to produce outputs; especially Hormozgan, Tehran, Ghom and Gilan provinces were the most efficient Provinces.

In this Article we try to determine and analyze the levels of development of rural areas and its nonequivalence in Kurdistan Province at the level of country and district in 1375 and 1385. To attain this, 45 indicators have been defined and measured. At first by means of the Factor Analyze, the co-linearity between the indicators was deleted and initial indicators were summarized to some factors. Then by means of the numeral taxonomy method the development degree and also by means of Binary Coefficient the rate of equilibrium were measured. The results indicate that the rural regions in the countries level are homogenous and of the Ghorveh district is heterogeneous to the other districts. The findings indicate that during 1375-1385, the degree of development of rural regions at both country and district level has increased, but the binary coefficient at these two periods shows the equilibrium of this growth in such a way that no structural transformation at the country level of their rural regions has happened. Also, the rural areas of the deprived regions in 1375 still are deprived in 1385 and often change the rank and position of development includes the central districts. This lack of equilibrium and equality has led to a difference of development position between the rural areas of central division of every country with its other divisions.

The evaluation of productivity has been noticed by researchers because of the importance of the productivity assessment. For the evaluation productivity، two general methods exist: parametric and nonparametric. The data envelopment analysis which is a nonparametric method assesses the unit’s productivity with using mathematical optimization. The assessment, recognition and analysis effectual factors of productivity of tea conversion industries are the purpose of this paper. The results show that in 1384, average of the tea firm’s productivity was 71 percent and the 13 firms were productive and 42 firms were nonproductive. Furthermore، effectual factors of the units were analyzed with statistical tests. Consequently, comprehensive suggestions in order to improve productivity of the Iranian tea conversation industries were explained.