Journal of Economic Research and Policies
Year:2020 | Volume:28 | Issue:94|Papers Count:13

Compensation of the regressivity is one of the reasons to exempt some goods and services in VAT system. This approach also can be seen in determining the exempt goods and services list in Iran; As in the amendment bill of VAT law was pursued and led to the proposal of modifying the current list of exempt goods and services, which has been undergone some changes in economic committee of Islamic Parliament. The aim of present paper is to investigate how this policy will affect on VAT regressivity according to loss (benefit) distribution criterion in different expenditure groups. Therefore, a quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QAIDS) consisting of 6 commodity groups has been estimated for 39000 households during 2017 – 2018, using nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression. The innovation of this paper is not only because of its subject, but also due to its estimation method and micro information. Results of the welfare effects distribution arising from the change of exempt goods and services list, using the ratio of compensatory change of different household groups to the average of their expenditure, show that this criterion is more for middle and lower deciles in comparison to upper. Thus, modifying the vat exemptions list can decrease VAT regressivity to some extent.

Economis growth is one of the main factors for evaluating the performance of governments. Economic growth itself is influenced by other factors that have been addressed in growth theories. Among the factors examined in growth theories, technical progress is of particular importance due to its long-term effects on growth. In recent growth models, the technological progress considered an endogenous factor which is influenced by the other variables. The present study seeks to investigate the effect of monetary shocks on technical progress in Iran during 1996-2004, using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. The results of this study showed that the shock of increase in money base through increasing the amount of investment in knowledge would lead to an increase in technology growth. Considering the impact of monetary policy on technical progress in a recession-inflationary situation which there is a need of production increase, especially for a monetary authority to stimulate supply in the economy, is the policy recommendation of this paper.

The purpose of counseling is about the carrier price and its price increase between the years 1988-2019. To this end, by referring to the constitution, you can use the constitution to change your formula and eliminate your formula. The number of poor relative gaps surrounds the calculation of the relative poverty line with an emphasis on cutting you off and makes you the owner of the household. Ginichr('39')s poor calculation is calculated and the use of these services in another model can also be used. The research center says that compensation can be given to you during the time you want to be a contract officer, to be able to, to be allowed, to be arranged as a family welfare. The calculated welfare losses are related to the share of carriers in the household budget, traction and price fluctuations. The results of the calculation of the poverty line showed that the poverty line has always been increasing during the period under review. The situation of the relative poverty gap index and income distribution after price adjustment has improved compared to the previous period. A study of the relationship between welfare index and poverty index and distribution index in a threshold model showed that before adjusting the price by increasing the relative poverty gap index and income distribution index, welfare losses increase, but after adjusting the price, the relationship has become negative and this It can be argued that reducing the indicators of inequality does not necessarily mean improving the economic situation of society.

Global value chains are a complex product of the international fragmentation of production expansion that has revolutionized the production organization of the global economy and increased trade in services and intermediary goods. This new form of trade has allowed developing countries to benefit from international trade with specialization and comparative advantage in tasks, without having a comparative advantage in an entire industry. Given the increasing importance of global value chains, the goal of this paper is to analyze the position of the Iranian economy in the global value chains for 1990-2015. For this purpose, using the UNCTAD-EORA World Input-Output Tables, the indices of participation, position and length of value chain are calculated for the Iranian economy and its 24 sectors. The results show that the Iranian economychr('39')s forward integration into global value chains has increased, but its backward integration has reduced and Iran’ s economy has moved to the upstream of value chain. Moreover, for a benefit from global value chains, Iran is pursuing a competing path, in polluting and energy-intensive sectors such as the oil, mining, petrochemical and metal industries, and its considerable capacity in the service sectors remains neglected.

This study discussed the role of oil revenues and banking sector credits with an emphasis on monetary policy in Iranchr('39')s economy in the form of a dynamic dynamic equilibrium model. In this study was used real seasonal per capita data for the period of 1996 to 2017 and the seasonal adjustment utilized by the Hadrik-Proskat filter and Calibration method to extract the parameters of the general equilibrium model. For this purpose, first, the model of justification and the equations of each section were explained based on theoretical foundations and some previous studies. Then optimization of each section was done by solving its equations and the model was simulated based on the economic realities of Iran and subsequently, the simulated model was fitted with the help of variables moments that the results confirm the relative success of the simulated model with the realities of Iranchr('39')s economy. Also, the immediate response to the governmentchr('39')s oil revenue shock on variables was examined, The results showed that any positive shocks to government oil revenues would lead to an expansionary fiscal policy by the government that This increases household incomes and, while stimulating the demand side, increases household consumption by increasing household consumption. An increase in the volume of household deposits also means more funds available to banks, which will result in lower interest rates and an increase in the supply of bank loans to increase investment in enterprises and increase production that the results are in line with the theoretical expectations and economic realities of the country.

One way to achieve economic growth is to invest in leading sectors. In addition, economic sectors can stimulate economic growth in other regions through the effects of spillover and feedback on their output. The purpose of this study is to identify the leading sectors, the effects of spillover and feedback on Oil-rich region. For this purpose, the two-region input-output table of Iranchr('39')s oil-rich regions and the rest national economy are used. The results of the research show that in the oil-rich regions, from the demand side, the highest Output Multipliers is devoted to the production of rubber, plastics and petrochemicals. From the supply side, the sectors of wood and paper manufacturing, distribution of natural gas, manufacturing of metals and other mines have the highest Output Multipliers. And the average of spillover effects of oil-regions is 0. 09 and other national economy is 0. 05 due to the larger The rest national economy. The results show that agriculture, metal construction and transportation, warehousing and communications are leading Sector in oil-rich areas and The rest national economy. The petrochemical sector is only a leading Sector in oil-rich areas, however crude oil and natural gas are not leading Sector in either region. Therefore, expansion of downstream industries of crude oil and natural gas in oil-rich areas is recommended.

Each financial institution faces different types of risks, with three of the most important risks in the banking system being credit, market and operational risks. In order to manage risk, sufficient capital must be allocated. One of the common ways to calculate the capital needed to deal with these risks is to calculate the capital proportional to each risk and then the algebraic sum to obtain the total capital required. However, many recent studies of financial institutionschr('39') risk calculations have also considered the correlation between risks. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to compare the credit and market risk data, combine these two risks together and then calculate the capital requirement in the Iranian banking system to face two cumulative risks. In order to integrate these two types of risks with different statistical characteristics, the Copula function is used. Also, for each of the two risks, the associated risk factors are taken into account and their dynamics are modeled and used in the design of the desired model and to obtain the final distribution functions.

This paper seeks to explain the relationship between regional economic discrimination in the form of three indices of need discrimination, capacity discrimination and combined index of tax compliance across provinces for the period of 2002-2016 in three five-year periods. The research model was estimated by GLS method. The results of the model estimation show that there is a significant relationship between economic discrimination and tax compliance. Combined regional economic discrimination and regional economic need-based discrimination and capacity-based discrimination all have a significant and positive relationship with tax compliance so that the greater the amount of discriminatory provincial funding, the more tax compliance in that province, and the more funds. The less discriminatory the province is, the less tax compliance there.

With the introduction of any given variable in random dynamic general equilibrium models, the behavioral functions of economic agents will change, and consequently the shocks to the economy show a different direction and response. One of the most important sectors in the dynamics of a countrychr('39')s economy is the housing sector and one of the main determinants of the stagnation and boom of the housing market is the variable financing. In this regard, banks play a special role in monetary policy and financing of various economic sectors. In this study, considering the possibility of simulating the economy and explaining the behavior of macroeconomic variables to shocks to the economy using DSGE models, we investigate the effects of economic shocks in terms of housing financing. To estimate the parameters, macroeconomic variables data from 1998 to 2018 were used and the effects of economic shocks were evaluated using the approach of determining the role of housing financing. The results show that modeling the Iranian economy with DSGE approach and considering the role of housing financing has provided the ability to explain the Iranian business cycle. Also, based on the findings of the study, in terms of housing financing as an important variable in the Iranian economy, it can exacerbate the effects of shocks can have a significant impact through the housing market on business cycles and economic dynamics.

From the perspective of government accounting, the Publishing of Islamic Treasury Bills, due to the nature of these bonds that transfer of debt is permissible, there will be no additional financial burden for the government in the form of principal and interests of them. In other securities, on the other hand, the government is bound to pay the principal and its interests on the date of maturity to its holders. Paying the interests of the bonds as a new cost resource will affect government Fiscal sustainability. So, over the time, government debt will rise and get into Ponzi game. Regarding the growing trend in the use of securities in financing and the growing use of Islamic Treasury Bills, along with other debt securities recently, it is imperative to examine the aspects of Islamic Treasury Bills that can effect on the government fiscal sustainability, as a main way to achieve to a stable macroeconomic framework. This is followed in this thesis using the design of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. The results show that when the government uses the Islamic Treasury bills, along with other debt securities, the debt-to-output ratio which is considered in this study as an Index of Fiscal sustainability, during productivity, monetary and oil shocks, reflect the Fiscal unsustainability of the government budget in the long run. In contrast, through the private sector investment shocks, mark-ups, exchange rate shocks, and government spending shocks, reflects budget sustainability.

This research has introduced a concept called anomaly of the public budget of the country and its causes. Anomaly of the budget is any objective and non-objective deviances, violation of the major plans of a society, creation of abnormal behaviors that cause a lack of zero balance of operational balance, balance of capital assets and balance of financial assets, and, consequently, instability of the economy and failure to realize Justice. In this regard, first, the concept of budget anomaly is introduced by document analysis method, and then through using the method of analysis of them, the factors causing anomaly of the public budget of the country will be extracted. The laws, structure, resources and the public budget process of the country were among the main causes of anomaly of the public budget of the country, each of which was subdivided according to criteria. In the next step, with the help of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Analytical Network Process (ANP), priority was given to comparing all the factors and sub-criteria of them and the internal and external cluster dependencies of the main factors. The results indicate that the laws and regulations of the public budget of the country are one of the most important factors causing anomaly of the public budget of the country.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of banking facilities on economic growth with a steady-state approach. The econometric analysis of the paper is based on The Generalized method of Movements (GMM), using data for the period 1991-2017 collected from different data basis. The results show that banking facilities have a positive and significant impact on the economic sectors. Also, results show that the building and housing sectors, services, agriculture and industry, and mining, respectively, have the most affected by the banking facilities. Therefore, the attention of banks to the degree of effectiveness of concessions in economic growth should be addressed by policymakers to prioritize the granting of concessions to those that have a high impact on economic growth.

According to the Islamic Republic of Iranchr('39')s 20-years plan in the outlook 1404, achieving to the "full employment" has been considered as one of the most important economic features of Iran. However, the existing evidences suggest that the employment problem is still a critical topic in Iranchr('39')s economic issues. A part of it is because of Iranchr('39')s economy hasnchr('39')t created predicted jobs subject to predicted goals in Development Plans. In addition to the inability of Iranchr('39')s economy in creating predicted jobs, a major parts of employment rates have been destructed during each plan. Therefore net employment created, of what is called "net-job creation" in economic literature, is far less than predicted amounts for Iranchr('39')s economy and hence its effect is manifested in high unemployment rates. With this approach, the present study aims to take a step toward achieving the goals of future outlook plan – full employment-by investigating net employment in Iranchr('39')s manufacturing industries and identifying and evaluating the factors affecting them. To do this, the manufacturing industries data in terms of ISIC 2-digit codes has been collected from statisticed center of Iran (SCI) during 2000-2014 (3th, 4th, and 5th Development Plan). Also, net job creation in selected industries are significantly influenced by the combination of size and ownerships of the firms, capital intensity and investment growth, entry rate and industry growth, industry structure, technology level, profitability, productivity, wages and salaries, skill levels and gender compositionry employment, and paid taxes. Therefore and in terms of policy point of view, these results demonstrate that creating industrial employment is not a random phenomenon, and the fluctuations of industrial employment can be control by identifying the factors affecting that.