Financial Economics
Year:2008 | Volume:1 | Issue:2|Papers Count:8

Oil revenue is the major source of foreign exchange revenues in Iran economy. Since the oil sector managed by the government, the exchange rate in Iran is highly affected by the government decision. Also oil revenue is a function of oil price and its world demand. So the Iranian economy was fluctuated by uncertainty in the amount of oil revenue. Consequently uncertainty should have the major role in determining exchange rate.The main aim of this article is to analyses main factors of determining exchange rate including uncertainty in the market. For this purpose, future equilibrium exchange rate is estimated based on the assumptions of two scenarios including uncertainty factors. Comparing the equilibrium and controlled exchange rate shows that there is a high deviation between current rate and equilibrium exchange rate which will create a sharp increase of exchange rate in the future.

In Mazandarn province, regional unemployment rates appear to vary widely. In the year 2006, in this province, unemployment rates were 10.85 percent. This disparity is widely in county level. For example, unemployment rate at Joybar and Savadkoh counties were 6.5 and 20.6 percent respectively. Because of regional differences in unemployment rate, geographical analyze is important.In this research, by using spatial econometrics models which is applied in spatial autocorrelation and Iranian census data in the year 2006, we analyze the geographical distribution of unemployment in the 16 counties of Mazandaran province.On the basis of findings, there was positive spatial autocorrelation phenomena in Mazandaran labor market at the county level. Counties marked by high unemployment rate, as well as those characterized by low unemployment rate, tended to be spatially clustered, demonstrating the presence of ‘spatial autocorrelation'.Also, we consider the spillover effect of county's shock on the others.

In this study, we have measured TFP over the period 1994-2004 by applying Solo residual and Tornquist index technique. The trend of TFP has been studied and compared with in twodigit ISIC classification over the same period. The results of productivity measurement show that TFP in this period has increased on average by 6.9 percentages annually and its share in production growth is 65.8 percent. In addition, by using an endogenous growth model focusing on human capital, attempts have been made to elaborate the role of education, skill and technical progress in the growth of TFP. The results, based on the application of the panel data technique, show that education and skill, have positive and meaningful effect on TFP Moreover, the increasing share of technicians and engineers to total employment tends to increase productivity up to 17.2% but beyond this relative share, it cast a negative effect. On the other hand, technical progress has tended to have a positive effect on TFP. Further utilization of excess capacity and capital productivity enhancement has had a positive and meaningful effect on improvement of total factor productivity.

Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Iranian economy. Our evaluation is based on using the annual and seasonal variables trend. For this purpose, we introduce a model based on NBER approach to estimate leading and coincident indicators covering the period 1367: Q1-1386: Q4.We apply ARMA models for the forecasting of leading and coincident indicators for the period 1387: Q1-1388Q4.The forecasting results show that the will be decline of leading and coincident macroeconomic indicators in 1387 in Iran economy.

The basic aim of this paper is to identify the effectiveness of credit banking Expansion on the value added of manufacturing industry sector. For empirical test, we used vector autoregressive model that shows how different shocks affect on industry growth in the specific period and how can it explain the volatility of value added growth rate in industry sector. By using the method of variance decomposition, the findings Based on impulse response function indicates that economic growth in manufacturing industry sector much is dependent to credit banking which allocated to this sector. In addition, inflation and the number of employee as other variables of model have same effects on industrial growth rate but lesser than credit Expansion in banking system. The result of variance decomposition analysis show that banking system credit allocation to industry sector is important factor that influences growth of product and explain the volatility of variation in short and long term. The most volatility is originated from inflation and level of industrial employee in short term, but in long term the outcomes is opposite.

The efficiency and productivity measuring models have changed a lot in past decade, and strong body of theories and software's have been developed. In this article, first we review microeconomic theories about efficiency and then explain two major efficiency measuring models include data envelopment analysis (DEA) and SFA. Recent arguments about efficiency criteria start with studies of Coopman and Farrell in 1951. He argues that the issue of economic efficiency measuring in an industry is important from two aspects: one, economy theories and two, for purpose of economic policy making. Economic planning applications in particular industries, have a significant effect on expecting more outcomes without allocating more incomes and resources (efficiency definition).

In this paper we want to evaluate between gas injections to oil well instead of exporting or domestic consumption policy based on the linear planning model. According to the most studies, the oil wells conservation will be depleted in the next future. So achievement of the maximum utilization from this limited energy resource is very important.The findings indicate that the natural gas with its specifications should be used as a suitable substitution to crude oil. On the other hand, prevention from decrease of the process of oil production is one of the crucial issues of oil resources of Iran, and injection of natural gas can prevent from hiding of crude oil in limestone with split.After allocating natural gas to domestic uses, whatever remains out of total imports and domestic production is balance which can be used for injection to oil wells or to export.But through the linear planning model applied in this research, the profit resulted from injection of one cubic meter of natural gas to an oil well is 23.12 cents and the profit made out of export of it at price of 22.20 cents is equal to 13.74 cents. Therefore the state national benefit will be maximum when the most possible amount of the remaining natural gas is used for injection and the rest amount for export.

The road transportation system has carried out a crucial role in goods and passenger transfer. One of the main problems in passenger transportation sector is high rate consumption of gasoil. This paper assesses the cost-benefit of older heavy-duty vehicle replacement with new vehicles in three different scenarios from the government's view. The scenarios investigate the replacement of old heavy duty vehicles with domestic products, imported vehicles and the combination of domestic products and imported vehicles, respectively for a period of five years. According to the overall results, it is understood that from the view of the government, replacement of older buses with domestic products is suitable. Given that the annual production capacity of the other heavy-duty vehicles is less than the number of existing old heavy-duty vehicles, this segment should be replaced with domestic products and imported vehicles.